Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report: Ranking Week 10's Fastest Games

• Advanced Offensive Metrics Provide Better Context: Pass rate over expectation (PROE) and adjusted pace help us better understand team tendencies because they account for game context rather than relying solely on raw play counts.
• The Giants' no-huddle rate is trending up, and it spiked in Week 9. Their tempo is quickening as a result.
• Some NFC South quarter back changes led to downticks in pace for two teams: the Falcons and Saints.

Pace and pass rate can tell us a lot about offensive tendencies for NFL teams.

Teams that are trailing will -- naturally -- be inclined both to play faster and throw more often than they may initially want to do.

Conversely, perhaps quick, pass-heavy teams are getting out to big leads and are then slowing things down in the fourth quarter and grinding clock.

These will affect raw outputs for team data, so I wanted to account for that when digging into team pace trends.

This season, I'll be posting pass rate over expectation numbers (as designated by nflfastR's live win models, which account for game situation) and adjusted pace numbers (my own methodology of anticipating expected pace based on numerous in-game factors).

NFL Pace and Pass Rate Over Expectation

This table shows pass and run plays per game, adjusted pace, pass rate plus pass rate over expectation, and pass rate over expectation rates.

Full Season

Last Week

2025 Pace and Pass Rate Notes

Pace

• We've got a new pace leader by fractions of a second, the Dallas Cowboys. Dallas ran a blistering pace pace while playing from behind in Week 9, and even with adjustments for game context, they were zooming.
• The New York Giants also sped things up in a negative game script, yet they were also the fastest team by raw pace in the first half in Week 9. New York ran a no-huddle offense on 45.8% of their plays (excluding two-minute drill situations). They had been at 20.1% through Week 8. Already a top-three team by no-huddle rate, the Giants leaned into it at a season-high in Week 9.
• With Michael Penix Jr. back under center, the Atlanta Falcons slowed down considerably and owned the slowest adjusted pace of the week.
• Another NFC South quarterback change impacted pace, as the New Orleans Saints logged their first game with an adjusted pace of 30.0 or slower (30.0 exactly) with Tyler Shough at the helm. They were at 27.6 prior.

Pass Rate Over Expectation

• A lot of pass rate changes happened in Week 9.
• Four teams had pass rates over expectation that were 10.0 or more points below their average leading into Week 9.
  • Washington Commanders: -14.9 points (from +0.5% to -14.3%)
  • Jacksonville Jaguars: -13.7 points (from +3.4% to -10.3%)
  • Kansas City Chiefs: -13.0 points (from +8.1% to -4.9%)
  • Carolina Panthers: -10.3 points (from -6.6% to -16.9%)
• Two teams were pass-heavy by comparison; these two had a PROE 10.0 points or higher than their average leading in:
  • Las Vegas Raiders: +15.3 points (from -3.0% to +12.3%)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers: +12.7 points (from -1.3% to +11.4%)

NFL Week 10 Pace and Pass Rate Preview

Here's a look at this week's games in terms of average pace and pass rate (plus pass rate over expectation). The table is initially sorted by average offensive pace, so the higher the game, the faster it should be -- and the more plays we should anticipate.

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