Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report: Ranking Week 1's Fastest Games

Pace and pass rate can tell us a lot about offensive tendencies for NFL teams, but you'll often find some flawed ways of analyzing such data.

Teams that are trailing will -- naturally -- be inclined both to play faster and throw more often than they may initially want to do.

Conversely, perhaps quick, pass-heavy teams are getting out to big leads and are then slowing things down in the fourth quarter and grinding clock.

These will affect raw outputs for team data, so I wanted to account for that.

This season, I'll be posting pass rate over expectation numbers (as designated by nflfastR's live win models, which account for game situation) and adjusted pace numbers (my own methodology of anticipating expected pace based on game situation and win probability).

Here are the results from the 2022 season.

NFL Pace and Pass Rate Over Expectation

NFL Week 1 Pace and Pass Rate Preview

Here's a look at this week's games in terms of average pace and pass rate (plus pass rate over expectation). The table is initially sorted by average offensive pace, so the higher the game, the faster it should be -- and the more plays we should anticipate.

Notes

• The Tampa Bay Buccaneers led the league in adjusted pace last year (pretty easily) but now turn the offense over to a quarterback not named Tom Brady. There is nowhere to go but down in the pace rankings, and even if the team isn't toward the bottom of the league in adjusted pace and pass rate, they should skew closer to the NFL averages.
• There's a good chance the Los Angeles Chargers become this year's pace king. They now have Kellen Moore as their offensive coordinator, and his Dallas Cowboys have played uptempo for years now, including ranking second in adjusted pace in 2022 and first in 2021.
• A new staff for the Arizona Cardinals could spell disaster for their uptempo ways of recent seasons. That plus the injury to Kyler Murray, of course.
• The Cleveland Browns finished the season 12th in adjusted pace and 28th in pass rate over expectation. After Deshaun Watson's debut, they ranked 9th in pace and 24th in pass rate over expectation.
• The Baltimore Ravens are expected to produce different pace and pass rate stats under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, former OC for the Georgia Bulldogs. Baltimore ranked 29th in adjusted pace and 24th in pass rate over expectation in 2022.
  • Through Week 12 with Lamar Jackson fully healthy, they were 12th in pass rate over expectation but still 31st in adjusted pace.
• The Green Bay Packers can't play much slower than they have in recent seasons; a new quarterback situation could lead to a higher tempo -- albeit not by much.

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