ACC Tournament Prop Bets for Thursday 3/14/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
ACC Tournament Prop Bets for Thursday 3/14/24

College basketball season is in full swing, and via the college basketball odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, we can get into the action by checking out prop bets for key games.

For bettors, numberFire's Matchup Heat Map helps identify favorable game environments, while KenPom and Sports-Reference offer a wide range of team-level statistics. We can also turn to Bart Torvik and RealGM for advanced player stats and splits.

Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and dive into our wealth of statistical data to find today's best prop bets.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

College Basketball Prop Bets

#5 Wake Forest vs. #4 Pittsburgh, 2:30 p.m. ET

Hunter Sallis Over 15.5 Points (-120)

The Wake Forest Demon Deacons managed a 72-59 victory over Notre Dame yesterday despite a rough shooting performance from Hunter Sallis.

Sallis went 4-for-14 (28.6% FG%) from the field and ended up with just 14 points, but he is primed for a comeback game against the Pittsburgh Panthers.

For context, Sallis is averaging a team-leading 18.2 points per game and shoots the ball at a solid 49.2% clip.

He has scored over 15.5 points in 65.6% of his games this season, meaning these -120 odds -- which imply just a 54.6% probability -- might not be giving Sallis enough credit.

I think his points line being where it is could be indicative of a slight overreaction to yesterday's poor shooting numbers, but it's easy to see the potential in his shot volume.

Perhaps what interests me most about siding with Sallis is how he has performed against the top teams in the ACC.

This season, Sallis has played in eight contests against ACC teams that own a better conference record than Wake Forest. In that split, he is averaging 20.4 points and cleared 15.5 points in 7 out of 8 games.

He shines in this environment, so look for Sallis to carry the Demon Deacons this afternoon.

#10 NC State vs. #2 Duke, 7:00 p.m. ET

Kyle Filipowski Over 7.5 Rebounds (+100)

The market might be giving us better-than-should-be odds on Kyle Filipowski's rebounding prop.

Filipowski is averaging 8.0 rebounds per game this season. He has surpassed 7.5 rebounds at a 54.8% rate, but if we account for only games where he played at least 28 minutes, he is clearing 7.5 rebounds at a 65.2% clip.

Regardless of which split you place more value in, there is some value in these even-money odds.

The Duke Blue Devils will take on the NC State Wolfpack, and though we have a 10.5-point spread on tap, I love Filipowski's rebounding potential in this one.

Duke is a much better team than NC State, so there is a possibility that they could blow the lid off the Wolfpack this evening. But NC State has looked very strong in this tournament, so I wouldn't be surprised if they play well and Duke comes out a little cold in what will be the Blue Devils' first game of the tourney.

The Blue Devils will likely eventually pull away with the W, but I don't know that the circumstances of this game will lead to a cut-and-dry blowout. This could protect Filipowski's minutes.

Further, NC State is a weak rebounding team. They let up 36.0 boards per game, which ranks 250th-worst among 362 D1 teams.

Duke's 27th-best adjusted defensive efficiency margin could force the Wolfpack to shoot the ball at a poor clip, which, in turn, would increase the rebounding opportunities for Filipowski.

#11 Boston College vs. #3 Virginia, 9:30 p.m. ET

Quinten Post Over 7.5 Rebounds (+106)

Rebounding is the name of the game today.

On the season, Quinten Post is averaging 8.1 rebounds per game. He has eclipsed 7.5 rebounds in 50.0% of his games. But if we account for only contests where Post played more than 28 minutes, he is clearing 7.5 boards at a 60.9% clip.

Post plays 31.6 minutes per game and should have a long night ahead, as the Boston College Eagles come in as 4.5-point dogs against the Virginia Cavaliers.

Add in that Post grabbed eight rebounds despite playing just 24 minutes in last night's 21-point victory, and I think BC's star seven-footer is primed to come out strong tonight.

But whatever way you spin it, the 48.5% implied probability for this prop -- courtesy of the +106 odds -- seems low based on Post's track record.

Virginia's bigs, Jordan Minor (6'8) and Jacob Groves (6'9), don't exactly have a size advantage on Post.

Although a 124.5 over/under is quite low, we have to be encouraged by how BC has played thus far in this tournament. This matchup is trending towards a nail-bitter, and if bonus-induced foul shots come into play, Post could be granted a few gimme rebounds.

If you’re betting on any NCAAB action before March 17th, you can take advantage of FanDuel Sportsbook’s College Basketball Boost Builder. See the promotions page for more information.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.