5 NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 11/8/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

RJ Barrett Over 18.5 Points (-122)

I am all in on RJ Barrett exceeding his points prop against the San Antonio Spurs.

Barrett is averaging 22.0 points per game. Tonight, he will not only be playing in a game with a high team point total (116.5), but he will also face a weak Spurs defense that is allowing the second-most points per game this season, and more importantly, the second-most points per 36 minutes to forwards.

The Spurs give up the third-most three-point attempts (3PA) and the highest three-point percentage (3P%) to opposing teams. Barrett is scoring 30.0% of his points from behind the arc and leads all Knick players with a 44.0% 3P%.

Not only should Barrett see some great opportunities to make it rain from downtown, but he also can take advantage of his status as the league's fourth-highest scorer in transition. San Antonio allows the third-most transition points per game -- it's a match made in heaven for Barrett.

Barrett has surpassed the over on this prop in three out of five games this season. In the two games in which he didn't (18- and 16-point performances), the Knicks' totals averaged out to 98.0 points (whereas the other three Knicks' game totals averaged out to 113.7 points). With a 116.5 total on tap for this Knicks team, I trust Barrett to get the job done tonight.

Julius Randle Over 9.5 Rebounds (+106)

Staying in New York, I'm targeting Julius Randle to grab 10 boards tonight.

Randle is averaging 10.4 rebounds per game (on pace with his 10.0 average from last season). He has cleared this prop in six out of seven games this season -- a decent place to start.

The one game in which Randle did not clear this prop was at the hands of a low-scoring game against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs shot a mere 74 FGA in this game, which didn't exactly create a whole lot of rebounding opportunities.

The Spurs, meanwhile, are averaging 92 FGA per game (fifth-most) while their team FG% ranks 16th in the league. This should allow Randle, who leads all Knick players in adjusted rebound chance percentage (66.4%), to be a monster on the boards.

San Antonio is also contesting the third-fewest number of rebounds in this young season. Their struggles date back to last season when Randle averaged 12.0 rebounds (13 and 11) in two games against them. I expect him to do more of the same tonight.

Paul George Over 20.5 Points (-113)

The new-look Los Angeles Clippers leave us with some undervalued Clipper point props, and I think the most grave instance comes in regards to Paul George.

James Harden suited up for his first game with the Clippers on Monday night, a game which ended in George scoring a mere 10 points. I think the market may be taking this one-game sample as evidence that there are too many cooks in the kitchen for the Clippers' offense, which may be true, but it won't affect George's points average so drastically.

George is averaging 25.7 points per game this season, even with Monday's 10-point night. There's a clear reason why he fared so poorly in his most recent game, and it doesn't have a ton to do with Harden -- George shot 18.2% from the field in this game. That percentage is a once-in-a-season type number for him. In 56 games last season, he shot lower than 23.8% from the field just once.

It's safe to say we shouldn't plan on another abysmal shooting performance, so now let's look at George's competition for the night, the Brooklyn Nets.

The Nets are giving up the seventh-most points per game, as well as the seventh-most 3PA per game. To forwards, they fare even worse, giving up the fifth-most points to this position per 36 minutes.

George is scoring 42.9% of his points from behind the arc, so it's a good sign for him that only five other teams give up more three-point makes to forwards per 36 minutes than the Nets.

Further, George ranks ninth among all NBA players in isolation points per game, and no team gives up more isolation points per game than Brooklyn. It's hard not to like him to score 21-plus tonight.

Nikola Jokic Under 29.5 Points (-115)

Nikola Jokic is probably the least fun player to bet against, but I think it makes sense in this case.

The Joker has only scored 30-plus points in two out of eight games this season. Despite his status as the league's most dominant player, these results are not too dissimilar from his numbers last year -- Jokic scored 30-plus points in 30.4% of his games last season (21 out of 69 games).

He will face the Golden State Warriors, who are allowing the 12th-fewest points per game. Despite Golden State's small lineup, they have managed to hold centers to the 10th-fewest points per 36 minutes this season.

Jokic is dominant when he posts up -- he ranks second among all players in post-up points per game. Though the Warriors' defense isn't a bastion in this regard, they also aren't bad, either. Golden State ranks 16th in post-up points allowed per game, so it's nice to know that aren't typically too sacrificial here.

Last season, Jokic averaged 24.0 points (26 and 22) in two games against Golden State. The Denver Nuggets will be without Jamal Murray (hamstring) tonight, which takes away an offensive threat for the Warriors.

The Nuggets are playing at the 4th-lowest pace, while the Warriors are playing at the 13th-lowest pace. Denver's implied team total sits at 114.5 for tonight, and Jokic's two 30-plus point games correlated with 125-plus team totals for Denver.

Deni Avdija Over 11.5 Points (-111)

The Washington Wizards will visit the Charlotte Hornets in what should be an ugly and high-scoring game.

Nobody in the league plays at a faster pace than the Wizards while the Hornets hold the fourth-highest pace in the league. This has, naturally, resulted in the Wizards giving up more points per game than any other team, and the Hornets giving up the fourth-most points.

This makes it pretty hard not to target an undervalued player in this game, and tonight, I'm siding with Deni Avdija to score 12 of Washington's implied 119.5 team total.

Avdija is averaging 13.7 points per game this season and has cleared the over on this prop in his last three games. He should see ample scoring opportunities, and not only due to the high-score projection.

The Hornets are particularly sacrificial to forwards. They allow the second-most points per 36 minutes to starting forwards. Avdija is scoring the seventh-most fast break points per 36 minutes (player pool adjusted for GP and MIN), while the Hornets are allowing the fifth-most fast break points per 36 minutes.

Further, Avdija ranks ninth in the league in transition points per game, and Charlotte gives up the sixth-most transition points per game.

This should be a nice matchup for the Wizards' starting small forward, and 12 points doesn't seem far-fetched.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.