4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for Week 17

I'm not opposed to betting a spread in Week 17, even if these markets are humming at near peak efficiency this time of year.

I just largely don't trust the value my model is showing there this week.

Most of the teams grading out well against the spread for me are dealing with cluster injuries or a lack of motivation, two things I'm always wary I'm under-accounting for. Conversely, the totals where I see value make sense both from a narrative and a data perspective, allowing me to turn that direction instead.

Which totals stand out for Week 17 in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds? Let's dig into my favorites.

Best NFL Week 17 Spread and Total Bets

Jaguars at Colts

Total Under 48.5 (-110)

I get why this total is high: the Jacksonville Jaguars' offense is cooking, and the Indianapolis Colts' defense just got cooked. It makes sense.

It has just gone too far up.

This total was 44.5 on the lookahead line and just gradually shot up over the weekend. It has held steady at 48.5 without much interest on either side, meaning it's at least unlikely to go any higher.

Part of my preference for the under revolves around the Jags' defense. They're up to sixth in numberFire's schedule-adjusted rankings for the full season and have played better than that of late. It's a much different matchup than what Philip Rivers and company had last week.

The Colts' defense may also be healthier than it was. After getting DeForest Buckner back last week, Sauce Gardner returned to a limited practice on Thursday, indicating there's at least a chance he can play. It's an underwhelming unit even with Gardner, but it certainly wouldn't hurt.

All in all, I have this total much closer to the lookahead line at 45.0. It feels to me like the market overreacted to what it saw in Week 16, so I'll back the under at the elevated number.

Saints at Titans

Total Under 39.5 (-114)

Three factors have me on the under for this battle of rookie quarterbacks.

First, the New Orleans Saints' defense is low-key solid. They're up to 10th in numberFire's rankings and are top-12 against both the pass and the rush.

Second, I'm not as sold on Tyler Shough as the market. He's still just 27th in Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back out of 45 quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs. He has been fine for a rookie while facing poor competition, but he certainly hasn't blown anybody's doors off.

Finally, Shough and company -- a dome team -- will have to play in the wind here. The current forecast calls for 13 mph winds in Nashville, a non-negligible suck on the total.

All in all, I have this game totaled at 36.5. With the total at 39.5, we get a win on a semi-key number of 37, and I think we have plentiful paths to getting there given the various factors in our favor.

Cardinals at Bengals

Total Under 53.5 (-110)

This is another spot where a dome team will be forced to play in wind, allowing me to back the under.

As of now, the forecast in Cincinnati calls for 10 mph winds. That number was higher earlier in the week, but it's still a decent impediment for the Arizona Cardinals as they shift outdoors.

This is also just a really, really high number. Only five times this year has a total closed higher than 53.5, and only two others were at exactly 53.5. Of those seven games with lofty totals, four were indoors.

The Cardinals' defense has no healthy players left, and the Cincinnati Bengals' offense has proven it's still willing to push. I get why the total is this high. But even accounting for that, my model still has this one at 50.5, and we get wins on relevant key numbers of 51 and 47. The under looks like the right play despite the Cardinals' defensive deficiencies.

Bears at 49ers

Total Under 52.5 (-110)

As someone who needs Brock Purdy and D.J. Moore to go off for a dynasty fantasy football championship, I'd love to be wrong here. Luckily for me, they could do so with this game still going under.

As laid out with the Cardinals and Bengals, this is a big number. We won't deal with wind here, but there just aren't a ton of outdoor games with totals this high. That's especially true when the two offenses involved aren't exactly juggernauts.

The Chicago Bears are currently 13th in numberFire's offensive rankings. It has been trending up, but even in their key wins, the efficiency has been more acceptable than elite.

The San Francisco 49ers are far tastier now that Purdy is healthy, but they may be without George Kittle, who moves the needle both in the passing and rushing game. They'd still project well, especially if Ricky Pearsall can suit up, but Kittle is a key cog.

All together, I've got this total at 49.1. That's still high and reflects that these defenses leave something to be desired. It's just not high enough for me to ignore the under at 52.5.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.