3 Strikeout Props to Target for Wednesday 5/22/24

Riley Thomas•_riley8

2mo

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Jared Jones Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-108)

The Pittsburgh Pirates have two exceptional rookie starters in Jared Jones and Paul Skenes, and each hurler is posting impressive strikeout numbers. Jones has more starts under his belt than Skenes, with Jones racking up nine appearances while posting an elite 30.6% strikeout percentage (K%) -- which ranks in the 88th percentile. His chase and whiff rates are just as good, sitting in the 97th and 95th percentiles, respectively.

After posting at least seven Ks over his first five starts, Jones is finally showing some inconsistency as he had few than five strikeouts in two of his last four starts. The rookie right-hander is still holding high projected K totals for every start; tonight is no different with a 6.5 total at FanDuel Sportsbook.

I'm expecting Jones to have another low-strikeout outing against the San Francisco Giants. The Giants have the 11th-lowest K% in baseball and average 7.86 strikeouts per game (11th-fewest). This production has continued over San Fran's previous six; if anything, it's only improved as the Giants are posting just 5.5 Ks per contest during the span. For reference, the Houston Astros have the fewest strikeout per game for the season at 6.69.

San Francisco has great plate discipline, as well, holding the 10th-lowest chase rate and 4th-lowest swinging-strike. With Jones beginning to put some low strikeout totals in box scores and the Giants being as stubborn as an ox when it comes to strikeouts, the under has my attention.

Some storms are also expected to hit Pittsburgh before and after tonight's game. If the weather shifts into game time, there's even more reason to back the under as Jones could have a rain-shortened outing.

Bryce Miller Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-102)

Unlike the Giants, the New York Yankees have seen their punchouts spike over their previous four games, posting nine or more strikeouts in three contests. The Yanks are averaging only 7.58 Ks each contest this season (seventh-fewest).

The Seattle Mariners' Bryce Miller is looking to take advance of this stretch. He's struck out at least five batters in four of his previous six outings. FanDuel Research's projections also have Miller's K total at 5.54.

With that said, I'm going against the grain with this pick since this is an advantageous matchup for New York. Miller has a weak ground-ball percentage of 37.4% (bottom 27%), but he's improved in the category with at least a 45.0% ground-ball percentage in three of his last four starts. However, I'm not confident that trend will continue tonight as the Yankees boast the sixth-lowest ground-ball percentage.

Let's also take some time to look at Miller's pitch usage. He has mostly featured four-seam fastballs (44.4%), sinkers (20.4%), and splitters (18.3%) this season. This is a nightmare matchup for the second-year hurler with New York holding the 11th-most runs above average against fastballs, the 6th-most when facing sinkers, and the most runs above average versus splitters.

Miller has an alarming 46.0% hard-hit percentage (bottom 12%), and the Yanks have the third-highest isolated power (ISO) and fourth-highest slugging percentage (SLG). We could see a brief start with Miller going under 4.5 Ks tonight if the Yanks are able to hit him hard early and often.

Justin Steele Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)

It may be only matter of time before we see Justin Steele's numbers rival his stats from last season. Steele currently has a 5.21 ERA, but various stats suggest that he's not far off from his All-Star 2023 season. For example, he's carrying a 1.21 WHIP compared to 1.17 in 2023. Advanced stats have the same sentiment as Steele owns a 3.87 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) and expected ERA (xERA) of 3.76, compared to clips of 3.61 and 3.50, respectively, in those stats in 2023.

Steele's current strikeout numbers won't make opposing batters shake in their boots (22.2 K%), but his chase rate is solid. In fact, it's pretty impressive at 32.7% (84th percentile), which is in line with his 31.9% chase rate from 2023. He has a tough matchup on Wednesday against the Atlanta Braves, but they chase pitches outside of the zone quite often (tied for sixth-highest chase rate).

The Braves aren't invulnerable to strikeouts either as they sit in the top half of the highest K% against southpaws. Atlanta's Ks have been up lately, too -- over the previous six contests, they are at 10.5 strikeouts per game.

Last season's head-to-head matchups also give good insight as Steele recorded seven and six Ks in two clashes with the Braves.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.