3 Strikeout Props to Target for Tuesday 6/4/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Props to Target for Tuesday 6/4/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Jared Jones Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)

Despite his 27.8% strikeout percentage (K%), Jared Jones has been in a bit of a strikeout slump. The Pittsburgh Pirates' rookie averaged 7.4 strikeouts per start over his first seven appearances. During Jones' previous four appearances, he's failed to surpass five Ks on three occasions while totaling 4.5 strikeouts each start.

Tuesday's opponent is one of MLB's most dangerous batting orders. The Los Angeles Dodgers are tied for the fifth-most runs scored while being tied for the fourth-best batting average and carries the second-highest weighted on-base percentage (wOBA).

Jones has been shaky when it comes to giving up extra-base hits (bottom 24% in hard-hit percentage). Meanwhile, L.A. has the 11th-highest hard-hit percentage, 3rd-highest slugging percentage (SLG), 3rd-highest isolated power (ISO), and 4th-highest home run percentage. This is gearing up to be a matchup nightmare for Jones, who has surrendered a homer in four consecutive starts. Join the club as few pitchers want to see the Dodger blue.

Los Angeles' K% doesn't really stick out for better or worse with the 13th-lowest mark. However, the Dodgers did an excellent job of avoiding strikeouts in their previous series, totaling only 5.7 Ks each game. That's a big drop-off compared to their season average of 8.25 strikeouts each contest.

Jones almost exclusively throws four-seam fastballs (48.0%) and sliders (38.4%). His slider has been the money pitch for Ks, carrying a 33.0 K%. L.A. has raked against sliders with the fifth-most runs above average, posing yet another problem for Jones. I believe Jones' slide in strikeouts will continue on Tuesday.

Jesus Luzardo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-122)

There have been few redeeming qualities about the Miami Marlins, who have the second-worst record in baseball at 21-39. But Jesus Luzardo has managed to remain a solid starter, carrying a 4.18 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, and 3.82 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA).

After recording a K% of 30.0% and 28.1% in his last two seasons, Luzardo has seen this dip to 24.0%. However, tonight's matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays could mean success for the young pitchers' K total. Let's dive into the stats.

Tampa Bay looks pretty vulnerable with the seventh-highest K%. It gets even better with the Rays tied for the eighth-highest swinging-strike percentage. Luzardo is in the 88th percentile of whiff percentage; this has been a constant strength for the left-handed hurler as he's been in at least the 70th percentile of whiff rate for five straight seasons.

We have also seen the Rays' K% rise to the fourth-highest in MLB when facing southpaw pitches. Tampa Bay has reached nine strikeouts in three of their last four games. Luzardo's slider has a jaw-dropping 50.0 K%, and the Rays have the sixth-fewest runs above average against this pitch.

The evidence is clear; I'm backing the over for Luzardo's strikeout total.

Corbin Burnes Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-113)

The Toronto Blue Jays could be on the verge of a fire sale due to a disappointing 28-31 record. Even the Jays' stars, including Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., have landed in some trade rumors. Even during tough times, Toronto has remained steady when it comes to avoiding strikeouts.

In the 2023 season, the Blue Jays had the sixth-lowest K% at 20.9%. This has carried over to 2024 with a K% of 19.3% (fourth-lowest). The plate discipline has been there with Toronto holding the lowest swinging-strike percentage and fourth-lowest chase rate. The latter should be a big key tonight against the Baltimore Orioles' Corbin Burnes.

Burnes, who is +460 to win the American League Cy Young award, is in the 91st percentile of chase percentage. He's also in the 78th percentile of whiff rate. The Jays seem to have the plate discipline across the board to stomp Burnes' strikeout production. Baltimore's ace has been under six strikeouts in two of his last three starts.

Toronto isn't particularly bad against either one of Burnes' top strikeout pitches (curveball and slider). In fact, the Blue Jays have the 13th-most runs above average against curveballs, which is Burnes' most-used breaking ball with a 21.5% usage rate.

With the Jays totaling only 4.5 strikeouts per game over their last two, give me under 5.5 Ks for Burnes.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.