MLB

3 Strikeout Props to Target for Tuesday 6/18/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Pablo Lopez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+114)

Pablo Lopez sports an ugly 5.33 ERA, but his underlying numbers are solid, including a 3.28 xERA, 3.36 xFIP, and 3.28 SIERA.

He's still throwing the same stuff that earned him seventh place in last season's AL Cy Young voting, coming into the night with a 26.3% K% and 9.95 strikeouts per nine innings.

Asking Lopez to record over 6.5 strikeouts isn't an easy task, but we've seen some encouraging trends based on tonight's matchup that could make targeting these +114 odds worthwhile.

Lopez will take the mound opposite the Tampa Bay Rays.

Tampa Bay ranks 25th in batting average, 27th in weighted on-base average, 24th in wRC+, and 30th in slugging percentage versus right-handed pitchers. They're scoring just 3.88 runs per game (27th), and their abysmal splits against righties could have Lopez pitching deeper into the game than normal.

More importantly, the Rays are striking out at a 23.9% rate (ninth-highest) against this handedness. Lopez has faced six teams that rank in the top 15 of K% versus righties. In this split, he averaged 7.3 Ks and cleared 6.5 strikeouts in four out of six games.

Alec Marsh 7+ Strikeouts (+132)

Alec Marsh is a fresh face for the Kansas City Royals and has been proficient in his starting gig.

Through 12 starts, Marsh owns a 3.63 ERA, 3.93 SIERA, and 1.09 WHIP. Kansas City has gone 9-3 in his starts and is favored to grab their 10th win in tonight's contest against the Oakland Athletics.

Not only has Marsh been putting his team in a position to win games, but he's also shown encouraging K numbers.

Across his first five outings this season, Marsh threw his fastball 32.7% of the time. In the seven games since then, his fastball has accounted for 39.2% of his pitches. Since increasing his fastball, Marsh has notched at least seven strikeouts in five out of seven games, and the trend could be his friend in a matchup against the A's.

Oakland is striking out at a notable 26.8% rate versus right-hand pitchers, good for the second-highest mark in MLB. Marsh has faced eight teams that rank in the top 20 of K% versus righties and recorded at least seven Ks in all but two of those contests.

He could shine in this friendly matchup, so I have my eyes on the plus-money available in the alt market.

Luis Severino Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-122)

Following a treacherous 2023 campaign, Luis Severino is starting to find some of his footing for the New York Mets, entering the night with a 3.12 ERA, 4.19 xFIP, and 4.41 SIERA.

However, the punchouts have still not been there. Through 13 starts, he has produced a mere 18.6% K% and 6.92 strikeouts per nine innings.

He's recorded under 4.5 strikeouts in five of his last six games and could be at risk of continuing that streak in tonight's matchup against the Texas Rangers.

Severino has faced seven teams that sport a 22.0% K% or lower against right-handed pitchers. In this split, he fell below 4.5 Ks in five out of seven outings and averaged 4.0 Ks.

The Rangers are striking out at only a 19.9% K% rate versus righties (sixth-lowest), so they are not an easy matchup. Severino's volatility and low strikeout numbers combined with a date with Texas have me set on the under.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.