MLB

3 Strikeout Props to Target for Tuesday 6/11/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Props to Target for Tuesday 6/11/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Albert Suarez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-112)

After not pitching in an MLB game since 2017, Albert Suarez has carved out a role with the Baltimore Orioles. He's flourished through six starts with a 1.83 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Suarez's skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) isn't quite on the same level, but it's still solid at 3.99.

This piece is focusing on strikeouts, though. How has Suarez fared when it comes to making batters swing and miss? He is in the bottom 38% of MLB with a 21.0% strikeout percentage (K%) and is in the bottom 36% of chase rate. Suarez has his K total set for 4.5 against the Atlanta Braves, yet he has only reached five strikeouts in 9 of his last 10 appearances.

Following several injuries to Baltimore's bullpen, Suarez will likely remain in the starting role for awhile. He has made seven appearances from the bullpen this season. He's essentially been a plug-and-play option wherever the Orioles need him, but when you look at his pitch counts, a short outing seems likely.

Even in Suarez' starts, he's reached 90 pitches once and has pitched into the sixth inning twice. Atlanta remains a dangerous batting order with the 2nd-highest hard-hit percentage, 10th-highest slugging percentage (SLG), and 10th-highest isolated power (ISO). Suarez has an allowed hard-hit percentage of 38.4%, which is in the 50th percentile of the league.

There should be legitimate concern around if Suarez can make a deep enough start to reach five strikeouts.

Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Zack Wheeler of the Philadelphia Phillies has been pitching out of his mind this season with a 2.23 ERA, 0.967 WHIP, and 3.31 SIERA. He is firmly in the National League Cy Young race with the shortest odds to win the award (+200), per FanDuel's MLB award odds.

Wheeler hasn't been too shabby in the strikeout department either. He currently holds the ninth-most Ks in the league at 91. This is also reflected by his Savant page, sitting in the 84th percentile of K%, 83rd percentile of chase rate, and 69th percentile of whiff percentage.

The Phillies will pay a visit to the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday. This is gearing up to be a great matchup for Wheeler's strikeouts, for the Red Sox are tied for the third-highest K% across baseball. Boston is averaging 12.0 strikeouts per game over their previous three games compared to their season average of 9.7 each contest.

Wheeler's best strikeout pitch is his sweeper (34.3 K%), and the Red Sox have the 12th-fewest runs above average against the pitch. Philadelphia's ace has the tools to reach seven strikeouts against the Red Sox.

Jordan Hicks Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Jordan Hicks comes off one of his highest strikeout totals of the season with seven. However, he's only reached this mark in 3 of 13 starts in 2024. His strikeout prop has dropped to only 4.5 with the San Francisco Giants playing host to the Houston Astros on Tuesday.

The Astros remain one of the most stingy batting orders in baseball with the lowest punchout rate in MLB (17.8%). They've stayed right within their average, totaling 6.0 strikeouts per game over the last four, and their season-long mark (6.8 Ks per game) is the lowest in baseball.

The under only looks more and more likely the deeper we dive. For example, he has a 21.1 K% (bottom 40%) while sitting in the bottom 34% in chase rate and bottom 40% in whiff percentage. We already mentioned that Hicks rarely stacks a large strikeout total as he's averaging about 4.5 Ks each start.

Among Hicks' three most-used pitches, his splitter (34.3 K%) and sweeper (35.4%) have impressive strikeout rates. However, Houston hits well against both pitches, ranking among the top 10 in runs above average for each pitch. Hicks' fastball is the only other pitch with a notable usage rate (51.5%), and the tool has only a 10.0 K%.

With the Astros raking against Hicks' best put-away pitches, the under stands out as the better side.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.