MLB

3 Strikeout Props to Target for Thursday 6/6/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Pablo Lopez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+118)

We rarely see Pablo Lopez fall short of six strikeouts as he's reached the mark in 9 of 12 starts this season. However, May was not a kind month to Lopez. Over his last four starts, he posted a 6.65 ERA with opponents batting .316 paired with a .340 on-base percentage (OBP). This caused his season-long ERA to go from 3.89 to 4.84.

During this stretch, Lopez's K total also lacked in two of the four contests. He tallied three and five strikeouts on May 15th and May 20th. The Minnesota Twins' starter is logging 5.0 strikeouts per game over his last four.

Considering the +118 odds for under 5.5 strikeouts, this is worth a bet in my eyes. Before we dive into the stats, we should address the weather. The forecast is calling for some storms around 5:00 to 7:00 p.m. ET, and the game is scheduled to start at 7:05 p.m. ET. There's a chance these storms could cause an in-game delay, which would only help the under for Lopez.

The New York Yankees hit well against Lopez's most-used pitches. The Twins' hurler mostly features four-seam fastballs (39.6%) and sweepers (22.0%). New York totals the seventh-most runs above average against fastballs and the fifth-most versus sliders (a sweeper is a variation of this pitch). Lopez's curveball also touts an impressive 40.6% strikeout percentage (K%), and the Yanks have the eighth-most runs above average when facing this pitch.

Lopez has give up 10, 8, 7, and 6 hits over his last four contests. The Yankees have tallied the second-most runs in baseball with the third-highest batting average. Most importantly, they hit well against Lopez's most-featured pitches. I'm expecting another low-K night for the Twins' starter and perhaps a brief appearance. As such, under 17.5 recorded outs for Lopez (-115) is another enticing bet.

Sonny Gray to Reach 8+ Strikeouts (+126)

We have more tantalizing odds with our second pick of the day. The St. Louis Cardinals' Sonny Gray has been like fish grease in a frying pan over his last handful of starts. Few starters are stacking the Ks like Gray is right now.

He's logged 33 strikeouts over his last four starts, good for an average of 8.3 Ks per contest. His strikeout total is 6.5 for tonight's matchup with the Colorado Rockies. Of course, the Rockies continue to be bottom feeders with numberFire's lowest nERD score. Colorado also has the fourth-highest K% in MLB, further fueling Gray's chances for another eye-popping K tally.

The matchup and recent production are present. Gray's +126 odds to reach eight strikeouts is calling my name.

Swinging and missing has been all too common for the Rockies, who have the highest swinging-strike rate in baseball. Gray ranks in the 79th percentile of whiff percentage. He could have no problem making batters look silly.

St. Louis' starter has absolutely lethal strikeout pitches in his sweeper (61.4 K%), sinker (44.0 K%), and curveball (33.3 K%). Colorado has the seventh-fewest runs above average against fastballs and curveballs. Gray's most-used pitch is a four-seam heater (22.7%), and his curveball is still plenty good enough to draw some Ks.

Tanner Houck Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)

The Boston Red Sox's Tanner Houck has put himself into the American League Cy Young conversation with a 1.85 ERA, 3.03 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA), and 0.96 WHIP. According to FanDuel Sportsbook's AL Cy Young odds, Houck has the third-shortest odds to win the award (+1000).

The emerging 27-year-old completed six innings of work in five of six starts in May while carrying a 2.09 ERA with opponents hitting .201. What about his strikeout production, though? He totaled 34 Ks over the six starts, which is an average of 5.7 per outing.

Houck hasn't dominated when it comes to striking out the opposition; he has a 24.1 K% (62nd percentile), ranks in the 66th percentile of chase rate, and is in the bottom 43% of whiff percentage. How has he managed to put up impressive numbers? Houck has been highly efficient, sitting in the 89th percentile of walk percentage (BB%) and 90th percentile of ground-ball percentage.

Despite the Chicago White Sox being tied for the ninth-highest K%, I'm still taking under 6.5 strikeouts here. Houck reached seven Ks in only two of his six starts in May. FanDuel Research's projections have the Red Sox's pitcher at 5.29 strikeouts.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.