3 Strikeout Props to Target for Thursday 6/20/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Luis Gil Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-134)

The New York Yankees' Luis Gil hasn't reached seven strikeouts over his last three starts, yet his strikeout total for Thursday sits at 6.5. Gil will face off with the Yankees' American League East rival, the Baltimore Orioles.

This team hasn't really stood out for better or worse when it comes to striking out; Baltimore is tied for the 16th-highest strikeout percentage (K%) and totals the 15th-fewest Ks each contest at 8.19. This production has kept up with the O's averaging 8.8 strikeouts over their previous four games.

Gil has the season-long numbers to back the over, for he has a 30.4 K% (91st percentile). His strong suit has been whiff rate (83rd percentile), while his chase percentage is in the bottom 27%. When it comes to swinging-strike percentage, Baltimore is tied for the 13th-highest mark.

The Gil-Orioles matchup doesn't have a lot of strong numbers that sway to either side. But there's one exception, and it concerns Gil's pitch usage. The Yanks' hurler mostly opts for four-seam fastballs (55.2%) and changeups (28.5%). Baltimore is in the top 10 for the most runs above average against each pitch. These pitches also hold Gil's best strikeout rates.

With the Orioles hitting well against Gil's best weapons for stacking Ks, I'm taking the under. Confidence only grows when you take a look at Gil's recent strikeout numbers (5.7 over his last three starts), and he logged five Ks in his only head-to-head matchup against Baltimore in 2024.

Keaton Winn Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)

In the 2023 season, Keaton Winn made only nine appearances with five starts. The San Francisco Giants' rookie has enjoyed a larger workload in the majors this season with 11 starts, but Winn has seen his ERA rise from 4.68 to 6.66. His skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) of 4.04 suggests that Winn's numbers could improve, though.

The rookie right-hander has been on a roll in the strikeout category over his last two starts, totaling 6.5 Ks per contest. Tonight's opponent -- the St. Louis Cardinals -- is tied for the 13th-highest K%. The Cards also have the 3rd-fewest runs above average against fastballs and the 14th-fewest when facing splitters. Winn's two most-used pitches are his splitter (40.8%) and four-seam fastball (25.8%).

Additionally, San Fran's rookie best strikeout rates are held by his fastball (30.0%) and splitter (23.8%). It seems Winn has the tools to have another successful strikeout performance. However, making a deep start is still a concern for the righty.

Winn has completed five innings of work only once over his previous five starts. St. Louis' struggles against fastballs help Winn's case for a longer start. Plus, the Cardinals are tied for the fourth-fewest runs scored and are in the bottom half of batting average.

The Giants' starter has the ideal pitches to take advantage of some of St. Louis' weaknesses. The over for Winn's 4.5 K total is the best bet.

Adam Mazur Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+116)

The San Diego Padres' fifth-best prospect will take the mound for his fourth start against the Milwaukee Brewers. Following Adam Mazur's promising debut with only one run allowed through six innings, the rookie has hit a roadblock over his last two appearances, failing to complete the fourth inning in back-to-back starts while touting a combined ERA of 13.50.

While the Brewers have the 12th-highest K% in baseball, I'm not sold that Mazur can make a deep enough start for over 3.5 strikeouts. First off, Milwaukee has logged only 7.5 strikeouts per game over their last four compared to their season average of 8.8.

As the 3.5 total suggests, it's been a rocky start for Mazur's strikeout totals. He has a measly 13.1 K%, which would be in the bottom 10% in MLB. His slider (20.0%) carries the highest K% compared to Mazur's fastball (12.5%), curveball (0.0%), and changeup (0.0%).

Here's where a huge problem lies for Mazur's Ks. Milwaukee rakes against sliders with the most runs above average in baseball. San Diego's first-year hurler has struggled mightily to fan opposing batters, and his only pitch that carries a K% of 20.0% has been the Brewers' bread and butter.

Mazur has been under 3.5 strikeouts in two of his three starts. The under has excellent value at +116, especially with the Brewers flourishing versus sliders.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.