3 Strikeout Props to Target for Monday 7/1/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

David Peterson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-115)

David Peterson returned from hip surgery on May 29th, and so far, he has pitched quite well. In the 2023 season, Peterson touted a 5.03 ERA compared to his current ERA of 3.67.

However, the New York Mets' starter has struggled to stack strikeouts with a 16.5% strikeout percentage (K%) compared to 26.0% and 27.8% K rates over his last two seasons. Keep in mind that Peterson ranked in the 80th and 71st percentiles of strikeout rate in the last two seasons. While Peterson is in the bottom 13% of K% right now, we should expect this number to rise over time.

Peterson's recent starts have expressed this sentiment. He totaled only six strikeouts over his first three starts this season. However, the Mets' southpaw has 14 total Ks during his previous two contests. He posted single-game strikeout rates of 25.0% and 34.8% in his last two outings.

Tonight's opponent -- the Washington Nationals -- has the 10th-lowest K% at 21.1%, but this rises to 22.1% when facing lefties (tied for 11th-highest). The Nats just had 16 strikeouts in their most recent game. Plus, Washington is among the bottom 10 fewest runs above average against four-seam fastballs and sliders -- Peterson's highest K% pitches.

New York's pitcher should keep up his recent spike in strikeouts, and him reaching 6+ Ks could be worth a look at +196.

MacKenzie Gore Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110)

The Nationals will also put a lefty on the mound as MacKenzie Gore is set to make his 17th start. Gore has either flourished or disappointed when it comes to strikeout totals. For example, he reached at least seven Ks in three of his last five, but Gore failed to reach three strikeouts in his other two appearances during that span.

We could see Gore disappoint in the K department against the Mets. New York's batting order is totaling 7.8 runs per game over their last five. They also have the eighth-most runs scored against left-handed pitchers.

Gore's must-used pitches are four-seam fastballs (54.5%), curveballs (20.7%), and sliders (14.5%). The Mets are among the top six most runs above average against fastballs and curveballs. The numbers are pointing to a shortened start for the National's lefty.

The Mets also carry the sixth-lowest K% against left-handed pitchers. Over Gore's last three matchups with New York, he's averaging only 2.3 strikeouts each appearance. Considering the +110 odds, under 5.5 strikeouts is worth a bet.

Austin Gomber Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-126)

Austin Gomber has never been a strikeout savant, finishing among the bottom 50% in strikeout rate for his entire career. The numbers have only dipped since 2022 as Gomber posted 18.0% and 14.4% over the last two seasons. This season's numbers have been the same story, as Gomber is in the bottom 12% of strikeout rate (16.3%).

It's rather common for a team's K% is sway for better or worse when facing lefties. However, that's not the case for the Milwaukee Brewers, who have the 13th-highest K% against right-handed and left-handed hurlers.

With a low K%, Gomber doesn't have much to work with. In fact, two of his three most-used pitches are under a 15.0% strikeout rate. His curveball his only offering with a notable K rate (30.1%), but the Brewers are among the top half of runs above average versus curveballs.

The under only looks more likely when you look at Milwaukee's recent strikeout numbers -- 6.5 strikeouts per game over the last six contests. Gomber has been under 3.5 strikeouts in three of his last five starts.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.