MLB

3 Strikeout Props to Target for Monday 6/10/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Chris Paddack Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+108)

Chris Paddack has surpassed six strikeouts in only 3 of 12 starts this season, yet his K total is still set at 6.5 for tonight's matchup between the Minnesota Twins and the Colorado Rockies. He comes off a seven-strikeout performance, providing some comfort for the over. Additionally, the over is checking out thanks to various stats. Here's a break down for Paddack against the Rockies.

First off, Colorado is no stranger to striking out with a 25.2% strikeout percentage (K%) -- the fourth-highest mark in baseball. Chase rate has been one of Paddack's clear strengths. He has a 21.3 K% (bottom 42%) and a 23.8% whiff percentage (bottom 40%). His chase percentage is 30.7%, putting him in the 72nd percentile of MLB for the category. The Rockies have the second-highest chase rate in baseball, playing right into Paddack's strength.

The Twins' pitcher has not finished six innings of work over his last three starts, but he's facing one of the worst hitting teams in MLB. Colorado has the 10th-fewest runs scored and 12th-lowest weighted on-base average (wOBA). While Paddack is in the bottom 37% in ground ball percentage, it becomes less of a concern with the Rockies tied for the fourth-highest ground ball percentage. Easy groundouts will likely be in play for Paddack, potentially leading to a deeper starts.

Finally, his pitch usage is the final nail in the coffin for taking the over. Paddack's most-used pitch is his four-seam fastball (41.5%), and it is also carrying the top K% among his tools at 32.2%. Colorado has not hit well against heaters with the fourth-fewest runs above average when facing fastballs. Paddack's best strikeout pitch could roll on Monday.

Seth Lugo Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-136)

From 2018 to 2022, Seth Lugo finished in the top half of K% each season. Since, it's been a steady decline for the veteran righty. After finishing with a 23.2 K% last season (bottom 49%), Lugo is currently carrying a 21.1 K% (bottom 40%). Initially, it seems Lugo could stand no chance of going over 4.5 Ks against the New York Yankees, who have the eighth-lowest K% in baseball. However, a deeper dive suggests the over could be the best side to take.

The recent production is there for Lugo as he's logged seven strikeouts in three consecutive starts. The Yankees have also tallied at least 12 strikeouts in 2 of their last 3 games, which is well above their season average of 7.94 strikeouts per game.

Lugo's curveball has only a 16.3% usage rate compared to finishing above 28.0% over the last three seasons. He's leaned into the pitch more often with usage rates above 27.0% in four of his last six appearances. This only aids his K totals as it has a 44.0 K% -- the highest mark among his pitches by over 20.0%.

New York isn't that dangerous against curveballs, either, with 1.9 runs above average. I doubt that this will cause Lugo to avoid curveballs. With his recent production, going over 4.5 strikeouts is certainly in the cards. FanDuel Research's projections also have Lugo finishing with 5.26 strikeouts.

Erick Fedde to Record 7+ Strikeouts (+134)

With the worst record in baseball at 17-49, there have been few positives about the Chicago White Sox. Erick Fedde has been one of the few bright spots with his 3.27 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, and 3.65 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Each mark is on pace for a career-high. His 23.5 K% (58th percentile) is yet another career-best number for the 31-year-old hurler.

Fedde has totaled 15 Ks over his last 2 starts, averaging 7.5 each appearance. He gets to face a strikeout happy batting order on Monday as the Seattle Mariners have the highest K% in MLB at 27.4%. Seattle has also recorded double-digit strikeouts in four straight contests.

Chicago's starter has a K prop of 5.5, but the over offers little value at -158. Reaching seven strikeouts looks very intriguing at +134. I believe Fedde has the tools to get it done.

His biggest supporting point is recent production and the Mariners' poor numbers, but we have more evidence. Seattle has 0.0 runs above average against cutters; keep in mind that the Mariners are tied for the sixth-fewest runs recorded. This leaves the door open for Fedde to deal cutters, and the pitch touts his second-highest usage rate (26.5%) and a 26.3 K% (highest mark among his pitches).

Fedde can also use his best strikeout pitch to his heart's content. Give me the Sox's starter to reach seven strikeouts.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.