MLB

3 Strikeout Props to Target for Friday 6/21/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Ryan Pepiot Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130)

Ryan Pepiot touts a 28.6% strikeout percentage (K%), which is on pace for a career high and ranks in the 86th percentile. The Tampa Bay Rays' starter comes off a weak strikeout showing with only four Ks last time out. Friday should be a good opportunity for Pepiot to reach an impressive strikeout total once again.

Tampa Bay is on the road against the Pittsburgh Pirates, who have the third-highest K% in baseball. The strikeout rates alone points to the over for Pepiot, but we can take it a step further.

Pepiot is in the top 14% in whiff percentage, and the Pirates have the fifth-highest swinging-strike rate in baseball. Pitch usage also suggests success as Pepiot's most-used pitches are his four-seam fastball (51.6%) and slider (23.7%). Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is in the bottom half of runs above average against each pitch. Pepiot's fastball also has his highest K% at 33.6%.

Prior to his recent four-strikeout outing, Pepiot totaled at least seven Ks in three consecutive starts. We should expect similar success on Friday night.

Trevor Rogers Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)

After sitting in at least the 80th percentile of K% during the 2020 and 2021 seasons, Trevor Rogers' strikeout rates have quickly dipped. He was in the bottom 45% of K% in his last full season in 2022. These numbers have further plummeted to the bottom 19% in 2024.

Rogers has rarely reached 5 Ks this year as he's done so in only 5 of 14 starts. Over his last 10 starts, Rogers has hit this mark only twice. However, the matchup is present for the Miami Marlins' hurler to reach five strikeouts once again.

The Seattle Mariners have the highest K% in MLB, and it stays high against left-handed pitchers at 26.3% (second-highest). Rogers heavily leans on his four-seam fastball (24.5% K rate) and changeup (22.4%). In comparison, his sinker (8.6%) and slider (9.8%) are both under a 10.0 K%.

The Mariners are among the bottom 10 in runs above average against both fastballs and changeups, creating a favorable matchup for Rogers. In a date with the most strikeout happy order in baseball, Rogers is gearing up for a promising night.

Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-126)

The Cincinnati Reds' southpaw pitcher faces the Boston Red Sox on Friday. While the Red Sox have the fourth-highest K% in baseball, Andrew Abbott's K prop still seems a bit high at 5.5.

After logging a 26.1 K% in 2023 (72nd percentile), Abbott's strikeout rate has gone downhill to 18.3% (bottom 25%) so far this campaign. Reaching six Ks is a tall task when you look at Abbott's numbers on the season. He's reached this mark just once over his previous seven appearances.

Boston has also averaged only 6.75 strikeouts per game over their last four compared to their season-average of 9.56 (third-most).

Abbott has just one pitch that's carrying a impressive strikeout rate at 31.1%; his sweeper is carrying the load while Abbott's four-seam fastball (17.1%) and changeup (11.8%) are far behind. The Red Sox have the 10th-most runs above average against sliders -- a variant of sweepers.

With Boston hitting well against Abbott's best stuff, under 5.5 strikeouts seems imminent for the Reds' lefty.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.