3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Monday 4/22/24

Riley Thomas
Riley Thomas_riley8
3 Strikeout Prop Bets to Target for Monday 4/22/24

The lengthy MLB season offers a wide array of bets via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout props are among the popular lines offered. These bets can focus on the over/under of a starting pitcher's strikeout total or alternate lines can be utilized for more intriguing odds.

In this piece, we will dive into the stats to back our favorite strikeout props of the day across the MLB's slate. Which pitchers taking the mound could rack up Ks or which may stumble? We have plenty of tools available that can help us zero in on the top picks, and we'll use stats from numberFire's daily fantasy baseball projections, Baseball Savant, and FanGraphs.

Here are some of the most enticing strikeout props at FanDuel Sportsbook for today's games.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Strikeout Props

Jared Jones Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-134)

The Pittsburgh Pirates' rookie Jared Jones has taken the league by storm through four starts. He already has 32 strikeouts, which is an average of 8.0 per start.

Jones ranks in the 95th percentile of strikeout percentage (K%), 97th percentile in whiff percentage, and 99th percentile in chase rate. The rookie right-hander has even made some history, tying Shohei Ohtani with 43 swings-and-misses through his first two MLB starts. This is the highest mark since 1988.

Pittsburgh's starter is firmly in the Rookie of the Year (ROY) race, carrying the fourth-shortest odds (+600) to win the National League ROY, per FanDuel's MLB award odds.

The Milwaukee Brewers are tonight's opponent, and several stats suggest they could be tough to strike out. The Brew Crew have the second-lowest mark in chase rate and are tied for the fifth-lowest swinging-strike percentage.

However, Milwaukee gets caught looking quite often with the highest called strike percentage. Plus, they have a mediocre mark in K% (15th-highest) while averaging 9.0 strikeouts per game (10th-highest). The Brewers' K numbers have even been a little up over their last four games, logging 10.0 strikeouts per contest.

Considering Jones' elite K production across the board, I'm comfortable taking the over for the Pirates' rookie.

Tarik Skubal Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+114)

Tarik Skubal is another pitcher who is carrying a high strikeout total for tonight. I'm not worried about this number being too high for the over; the production is clearly there across four starts.

Following an impressive 2023 season, Skubal has kept his play going with a 2.92 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) compared to 2.77 last season. The strikeout numbers are also present; Skubal ranks in the 78th percentile of K%, 76th percentile of whiff rate, and 88th percentile of chase percentage.

Skubal's K average is 6.5 per start -- exactly where his total is set. With a favorable matchup against the Tampa Bay Rays, I'm taking the over for the Detroit Tigers' hurler.

The Rays were average in K% last season at 23.0% (15th-highest). This mark has jumped to 23.8%, which is the 11th-highest K% in baseball. Tampa Bay has the third-highest chase percentage and sixth-highest swinging-strike percentage.

This is still a dangerous batting order, though. The Rays rank in the top half of batting average and hits per game. Skubal has been elite on nearly all fronts, ranking in at least the 70th percentile in 10 of 12 of Savant's major stat categories.

After pitching for at least six innings in three of his four starts, I like Skubal's chances of making a deep outing while taking advantage of Tampa's tendency to swing and miss.

Yusei Kikuchi Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-162)

We might as well round out today's three picks with another high K total. The Toronto Blue Jays' Yusei Kikuchi has been like fish grease in a frying pan, totaling 25 strikeouts over his previous three appearances. That's good for 8.3 Ks per start.

You can see why Kikuchi is carrying a 6.5 strikeout total for tonight's clash against the Kansas City Royals. This time I'm targeting the under, though.

Kikuchi's strikeout numbers seem bound to come down as he ranks in the 89th percentile of K%, yet he is only in the 60th percentile in whiff percentage and in the bottom 29% of chase rate. He will likely stay among the top half in K%; Kikuchi has been in at least the 50th percentile from 2020 to 2023. His current 33.0 K% would be a career-high by nearly 6.0%.

We could begin to see these blistering numbers come down against the Royals. Kansas City has enjoyed a solid start to the season with a 13-9 record. The batting order has produced, racking up the 11th-most runs per game and 5th-most home runs per game, and they hold the 6th-best mark in isolated power. Some useful information for this K total: the Royals are tied for the seventh-lowest K%.

I'm already questioning if Kikuchi can keep up this kind of production, and Kansas City is rarely striking out. In fact, the Royals totaled only 5.3 strikeouts per game in their last series. My "safe" pick of the day is Kikuchi going under 6.5 strikeouts.

Watch live MLB games and more with B/R Sports on Max! FanDuel customers can now get 50% off the first 6 months of the Max With Ads plan when you bet $5 on any sport via FanDuel Sportsbook. See the promotions page for more information.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.