3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 9
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props bets that look appealing.
Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.
Chris Olave Anytime Touchdown (+200)
The New Orleans Saints are 8.5-point favorites against the Chicago Bears where we see a 41.0-point over/under.
The Bears have struggled on defense this season versus wide receivers, and it presents plenty of upside for Chris Olave this week. Through eight weeks, the Bears have allowed the eighth-most (108) receptions, the 14th most (1,252) receiving yards, and tied for the fourth-most (9) touchdowns to wide receivers.
It's become a profitable matchup to attack, and that puts Olave at the top of the list this week.
Despite leading the Saints with a 26.4% target share, 39.2% air yards share, 80.2% snap rate, and 91.4% route rate on dropbacks, Olave has just a single touchdown this season. A total of 77 targets, 44 receptions, and 517 receiving yards all lead the team, making the lack of touchdown stick out a bit.
The Saints have a 24.75 implied team total, putting them as the second-highest on the slate. With the Bears having allowed the eighth-fewest (536) rushing yards to running backs this season, the passing game is the best way to attack their defense.
If they are going to hit or exceed that implied team total, it should come via the air, making Olave a clear option this week.
Lamar Jackson Over 224.5 Passing Yards (-114)
With a tough matchup on the ground, the Baltimore Ravens should turn to Lamar Jackson and the passing game this week.
Over 224.5 passing yards is the spot to look for Jackson this week against the Seattle Seahawks in a game with a solid 44.5-point over/under. The home Ravens are favored by 5.5 points.
The Seahawks have been downright elite against the running game this season, allowing 472 rushing yards to running backs, which is the fourth-best in the league. Teams are not able to effectively move the ball on the ground, which should push them into the passing game.
This is almost exactly what we saw in Week 7 against the Detroit Lions, who are also in the top five for the fewest rushing yards (461) allowed to running backs this season. Jackson threw for 357 yards in that game, cruising past his passing prop of 216.5 yards.
The Seahawks are allowing 234.3 passing yards per game, which is the 11th-most in the league. Jackson has a clear path to upside this week via the air.
Davante Adams Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
It's been a busy week for the Las Vegas Raiders as they fired their head coach, GM, and offensive coordinator.
A set of sweeping changes for the Raiders makes Antonio Pierce, their new head coach, and with that, he announced that rookie Aidan O'Connell will be the starting quarterback moving forward.
This all impacts Davante Adams, who has clearly shown he is unhappy about his role in the offense to this point in the season. Head coach Pierce was quoted this week saying, "you better go to your key guys" when it comes to the plan for the offense.
While this might be a bit of "coach speak", it's encouraging to know they want to get their best players the ball.
In the one game that O'Connell started this season in Week 4 against the Los Angeles Chargers, Adams ended with a team-high 34.2% target share and 60.1% air yards share. They got him the ball early and often, which led to 13 targets, 8 receptions, and 75 yards.
A rookie quarterback simply getting the ball to the best receiver on the team seems like a sure thing, which is exactly what O'Connell did in that game.
He should be able to continue that this week against the New York Giants, who have allowed the 13th-most (1,277) receiving yards to opposing wide receivers this season.
We add all of this up, and the matchup is clearly favorable for Adams, but a new approach to the offense and playcalling should make him a priority moving forward.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.