3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 6

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props bets that look appealing.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

DeVonta Smith Any Time Touchdown (+220)

The Philadelphia Eagles and their elite offense have a 24.00 implied team total on the road to take on the New York Jets.

This shouldn't be a surprise to see the Eagles with a high implied team total and that simply means we should be targeting some players for their touchdown props. We're going directly to DeVonta Smith, who hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 2.

Smith is coming in with a few slower games in recent weeks, while his duo, A.J. Brown has put up massive numbers in these games. It's time for the pendulum to swing back to the other side and see Smith end with a big game.

On paper, this isn't the easiest matchup against the Jets' defense, who have only allowed a single passing touchdown to wide receivers this season, which is the best in the league. However, their defense isn't impervious, as they've allowed five touchdowns to tight ends, which is the worst in the league.

The passing game potential is there for the Eagles and I'm rolling with Smith this week.

Part of my process when searching for touchdown props is finding the right combination of a player's role and the odds for the prop. While the matchup is tougher, the +220 odds are too high given what Smith's role is within one of the best offenses in the league.

This season, Smith comes in with a 22.1% target share, 30.3% air yards share, and 11.1% red zone target share, while playing on 96.4% of the snaps and running a route on 98.3% of dropbacks.

That red zone target share is the most interesting part because that is the fifth-highest on the team. If we look back to last season, Smith had a 26.4% red zone target share, which was the second-highest on the Eagles.

He's due for a bit of positive regression when it comes to his red zone target share this season and I want to jump on board with the big odds this week.

Trevor Lawrence Over 254.5 Passing Yards (-114)

With a favorable matchup, Trevor Lawrence is primed for a big game.

The Jacksonville Jaguars come in as 4.5-point favorites against the Indianapolis Colts, where we see a 44.5-point over/under. We should see some good back-and-forth action in this game as both teams are in the top 12 of the league for the most plays run per game.

Plenty of plays means there are plenty of chances for TLaw to rack up yards against one of the worst defenses in the league. Coming into Week 6, the Colts have allowed 1,410 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks, which is the second-worst in the league.

Lawrence has been over this mark in two of the last three games and the Colts have allowed opposing quarterbacks to go over in three of their five games this season.

The Jaguars are also a bit more pass-happy at home with a 66.17% pass play percentage, compared to 50.23% while on the road.

A strong game environment and a great matchup should allow Lawrence to cruise over this number.

T.J. Hockenson Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The Minnesota Vikings' offense is going to look a bit different in the coming weeks and that means new opportunities for players.

The big news for the Vikings is that star wide receiver, Justin Jefferson has been placed on Injured Reserve. When one player goes out, others have to step up and fill that offensive production, which points us to T.J. Hockenson.

He'll be up against the Chicago Bears, who have allowed 282 receiving yards to tight ends, which is the 10th worst in the league.

Hockenson comes in with a 19.8% target share this season, which is now the highest on the team with Jefferson (26.4%) out for the next few weeks. Hockenson is now Kirk Cousins' favorite target and we want to jump on this prop before it moves up over the next set of games.

Hockenson also has a very modest 6.0 average depth of target (aDOT), which should come in handy this week with strong winds expected in Chicago. If they're not going to be throwing the ball deep downfield, Cousins should look for some easy underneath passes, which is where he targets Hockenson to begin with.

numberFire's projections have Hockenson going for 60.32 receiving yards this week, which has him hitting the over on this prop.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.