3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 12

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props bets that look appealing.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Nico Collins Any Time Touchdown (+190)

A big AFC South matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans should see plenty of points on the board.

With a 47.5-point over/under and a very close 1.5-point spread in favor of the road Jaguars, we are in for a back-and-forth game. This should create a game environment that is very conducive to production and touchdowns.

The Texans have a 23.00-point implied team total, and much of that scoring could come via the passing game, so let's look at Nico Collins for a touchdown this week.

Collins is rocking a 21.4% target share, 26.6% air yards share, 11.1 average depth of target (aDOT), and a strong 25.6% red zone target share. Those are all within the top three for the Texans, who have an explosive passing attack headlined by Collins and Tank Dell.

Speaking of the Texans' passing attack, they are throwing a bit more over the last three weeks, with their pass play rate up at 62.56%, the eighth-highest in the league. That is up from a season-long mark of 58.19%, which is 16th in the league.

When it comes to the Jaguars' defense, they have struggled against the passing game. They're allowing the fourth-most (254.4) passing yards per game and are tied for the fifth-most (11) touchdowns allowed to opposing wide receivers.

Collins is playing a big part in the Texans' passing attack and has just one touchdown over his last five games. With this soft matchup, it's his time to find the endzone.

Michael Pittman Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

The Indianapolis Colts should be able to move the ball freely through the air this week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay simply cannot guard opposing wide receivers this season and should be targeted on a weekly basis. The Buccaneers have allowed 1,996 receiving yards to wide receivers, which is the second-most in the league.

This means we should be looking directly to Michael Pittman Jr. and over 70.5 receiving yards this week. He leads the Colts' wideouts in nearly every conceivable stat this season except for aDOT. Pittman comes in with a 30.4% target share, 33.4% air yards share, and 42.1% red zone target share while playing on 97.2% of the snaps, and running a route on 97.8% of dropbacks.

When the Colts pass the ball, it's Pittman, then everyone else is a clear step behind him.

Pittman has hit the over on this prop in five of his 10 games this season, and he should be able to go over 70.5 yards again thanks to this matchup with Tampa Bay.

Joe Mixon Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

With Joe Burrow done for the season, the Cincinnati Bengals should lean on the running game.

The Bengals have a massive 66.07% pass-play rate, which is the second-highest in the NFL, and that likely won't continue going forward with Jake Browning now under center for Cincinnati.

I'd be hard-pressed to believe that the Bengals air the ball out in the same way with Browning as they did with Burrow. This means it's time for Joe Mixon to get more involved in the offense going forward, and this week, he has a solid matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Through 10 games this season, the Steelers are allowing 127.7 rushing yards per game, the 10th-most in the league. Rational thinking would see the Bengals lean on this matchup and allow Mixon to pile up the yards.

He should have no issues with that since he has a 73% rushing market share for the Bengals. The next highest player on the Bengals is Trayveon Williams at 6%. It's the same for their snaps rates with Mixon at 73.4% and Williams at 19.3%.

Other running backs hardly see the field for the Bengals, giving Mixon very little competition in a favorable matchup.

Looking to build some NFL DFS lineups? Head over to FanDuel’s daily fantasy football lobby to see all the offerings for this week's slates.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.