3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Thursday Night Football: Week 17

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player prop bets that look appealing.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Week 17 of the 2023 NFL season is here, and we kick things off on Thursday Night! I'll be bringing this article every Thursday along with a show on the Covering the Spread podcast feed to break things down.

Jerome Ford

Any Time Touchdown (+180)

The final Thursday Night Football game of the season has the Cleveland Browns hosting the New York Jets.

A very modest 34.5-point over/under and a 7.5-point spread in favor of the home Browns set the stage for the start of Week 17. This is a very important game for the Browns, as they can clinch a playoff spot with a win.

Let's start with a touchdown prop from Jerome Ford, who has good offensive usage and good odds this week. When it comes to the Jets' defense, they are super strong versus the pass but relatively weak versus the ground game.

This season, the Jets have allowed the seventh-most (1,517) rushing yards to running backs, the sixth-most (11) rushing touchdowns, the 10th-most (558) receiving yards to running backs, and the fourth-most (4) receiving touchdowns, putting Ford in a good spot.

If we look at the Browns' offense in just the last four games since Joe Flacco took over the starting job, Ford has a total of 44 carries, which leads the team. Kareem Hunt has 36 carries, and Pierre Strong Jr. has 10 carries.

Ford also leads the way with a 49.8% snap rate in these four weeks, compared to Hunt at a 35.1% snap rate and Strong at a 14.0% snap rate. Ford has a modest 9.4% target share and 10.0% red zone target share, but those are both higher than Hunt with a 4.1% target share and 5.0% red zone target share.

However, Ford has a 31.8% red zone rushing share, while Hunt leads the team with a 54.5% red zone rushing share. Ford is the primary running back in nearly all areas and yet has +180 odds for a touchdown compared to Hunt at +165.

There's no doubt that red zone rushing share is important, but I will take Ford, who plays more and is more involved overall.

Joe Flacco

Over 36.5 Passing Attempts (-114)

Joe Flacco has been throwing at a high rate and has a prop worth targeting this week.

In the four weeks Flacco has been with the Browns, he has totaled 42, 44, 44, and 45 passing attempts. An average of 43.75 attempts per game is no joke, and even with a tougher matchup, he can still hit this prop.

In just the last three weeks, the Browns have a 64.81% pass play percentage, which is the fourth-highest in the league over that time. The Browns are also averaging 72.0 plays per game in that span, which tops the league.

They are running a ton of total plays per game and the majority of those plays are passing -- a new look for a traditionally run-heavy team.

Yes, the Jets are allowing only 168.6 passing yards per game, which is the second-best in the league, but efficiency and yards aren't the target here. The total volume should be obtainable for Flacco, given the overall volume of plays the Browns are running.

Breece Hall

Over 31.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Finally, a strong role should allow Breece Hall to rack up receiving yards this week.

The Jets are 7.5-point underdogs, putting them in a passing game script if things pan out as we assume. This should allow Hall to rack up the receiving yards, something he's been very consistent at in recent weeks.

For the entire season, Hall has a 16.8% target share, but that has jumped to 23.8% in the last five weeks. Hall has racked up a total of 241 receiving yards in the last five games, or 48.2 per game.

Hall's average depth of target (aDOT) is also at -0.4 in the last five weeks, meaning he is being targeted behind the line of scrimmage.

The Browns' defense comes in with a 24.5% quarterback pressure rate, which is the sixth-highest in the league. Trevor Siemian won't have the time to drop back in the pocket and go through the entire coverage if the Browns are bringing pressure.

This is where Hall should be able to rack up the easy check-down passes and find his way to over 31.5 receiving yards.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.