3 NFL Player Prop Bets for Saturday: Week 15

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy football on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props bets that look appealing.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Week 15 brings about our first NFL Saturday slate, a trio of games spread out throughout the day. On paper, these aren't necessarily the most compelling matchups, but let's see where we can find some appealing player props to spice things up.

Joe Mixon

Over 26.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Scoring could be hard to come by in this Minnesota Vikings-Cincinnati Bengals matchup, which has the lowest over/under (40.5) of Saturday's three games and features a duel between backup QBs.

Jake Browning has been a pleasant surprise as the fill-in for Joe Burrow, but he could have his hands full against a Vikings defense that seems to be hitting its stride. It's no secret Minnesota blitzes at the league's highest clip, and it's hard to argue with the results, as they've allowed the fifth-fewest points per game (18.6), most recently shutting out the Las Vegas Raiders and giving up just 10 to the Chicago Bears.

According to numberFire's metrics, Minnesota's schedule-adjusted pass defense is up to 11th this season. But making matters worse, they're a rough matchup for running backs, too, ranking an even better fourth in adjusted rush defense.

This puts Cincinnati's offense in a bit of a pickle, as it's hard to find a path of least resistance. However, one tactic that has been consistent with Browning under center is successfully targeting Joe Mixon in the passing game.

Over Browning's three starts, Mixon has a 14.9% target share while averaging 4.3 targets, 3.7 receptions, and 46.3 receiving yards per game. Particularly against a blitz-heavy scheme, it's reasonable to expect the Bengals to continue utilizing Mixon as a safety valve. The Vikings have allowed receptions on 70-of-75 targets to running backs this season, the highest catch rate (93.3%) allowed to the position.

Browning will likely be put to the test on Saturday, but he should be targeting Mixon early and often in this matchup.

Zack Moss

Under 73.5 Rushing Yards (-114)

Another battle of backup quarterbacks -- a common trend this season -- the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts are combining for a middling 42.5 total in Saturday's second game. This could be another game that struggles to generate offense.

For the Colts, their running game has taken a step back with Jonathan Taylor out the last two weeks. Zack Moss was the featured back in Weeks 13 and 14, rarely leaving the field (89.1%), yet he barely went over this prop across both games combined, churning out just 79 rushing yards on 32 carries.

While we can perhaps point to a tough rushing matchup (Tennessee) and negative game script (Cincinnati) as factors working against Moss, this week's game environment might not be much better.

Pittsburgh is a neutral matchup at best for opposing backfields (15th in adjusted rush defense), and they'll likely try to churn clock with their own running game to limit a shaky Mitchell Trubisky's pass attempts. Add in that Indianapolis is favored by just 1.5 points, and there's no guarantee that the matchup, pace, or game script will benefit Moss' outlook.

Put it all together, and this Moss prop seems far too high, and the under looks like the play.

Jared Goff

Under 255.5 Passing Yards (-114)

The nightcap provides the highest over/under of the day (47.5), with the Detroit Lions coming in as 4.5-point home favorites over the Denver Broncos. The Lions have a 25.75 implied team total, the slate's highest mark.

The question is where will those points come from?

The Lions haven't exactly looked the part of a Super Bowl contender as we enter the homestretch, most recently losing to a Chicago Bears team that ranks 25th in numberFire's power rankings. Detroit has now gone 3-2 since their Week 10 bye, and none of their three wins have been by more than five points despite facing mediocre competition.

This brings us to Jared Goff, who has coughed up multiple turnovers in three of those five games, which includes throwing two picks in last week's loss. He's also fallen short of 256 passing yards in three of those five weeks.

Given Goff's recent play, Detroit could be content to get back on track by leaning on their run game at home. This would also coincide with avoiding a Broncos defense that's improved against the pass but could still be vulnerable versus the run.

Per numberFire's metrics, Denver is 27th in adjusted rush defense, which includes ranking 31st in RB Rushing Net Expected Points per carry and 32nd in RB Rushing Success Rate. Detroit's two-headed monster of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs could be poised for big days on the ground.

Better days should be ahead for Goff, but with Detroit trying to right the ship, this is the right matchup for the Lions to go with a conservative, mistake-free approach with their backfield. Additionally, the Broncos also play at one of the league's slowest paces, which could further hinder Goff from accumulating passing yardage.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.