3 NFL Divisional Round Prop Bets for Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills

And then, there were eight.

The Divisional Round stage is set with four must-see NFL matchups taking place on Saturday and Sunday. None could be more appealing than the Kansas City Chiefs against the Buffalo Bills as this features the smallest point spread of the weekend when looking at FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL odds. Plus, this is the third playoff matchup between the two clubs since 2020.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some NFL player props bets that look appealing.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's game projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills: Spread, Moneyline and Total

All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Spread: Bills -2.5
• Moneyline:
  • Bills -144
  • Chiefs +122
• Total: 45.5 (-110/-110)

Kansas City Chiefs-Buffalo Bills Overview

Before the Cincinnati Bengals tore onto the scene in 2021, the Chiefs-Bills was gearing up to be the next great AFC rivalry in the postseason. This was kickstarted by Kansas City's 38-24 win in the 2021 AFC Championship game. Of course, this was capped by the memorable scene of Stefon Diggs soaking in the loss by watching the Chiefs' celebration.

Since the 2020 season, the two squads have met six times with the matchup split at 3-3. While the Bills have won three of the last four meetings, Kansas City has gotten the last laugh in the postseason, winning clashes in 2021 and 2022.

Buffalo silenced Arrowhead Stadium by defeating the Chiefs 20-17 in Week 14. The Bills' defense impressed with two takeaways while holding Patrick Mahomes to a below average game with -0.23 expected points added per dropback (EPA/DB). This was the game that pretty much saved Buffalo's season and began their ongoing six-game winning streak.

According to numberFire's nERD-based power rankings, the Bills (fourth-best) and Chiefs (fifth-best) are among the top five best teams in the league. Both squads are also among the top four favorites to win the Super Bowl with Buffalo at +490 and Kansas City juiced to +700, per FanDuel's NFL Super Bowl odds. This matchup has pretty much everything you could ask for in a postseason game. Buffalo also has the perceived advantage with their hot streak paired with Mahomes experiencing the first road game of his playoff career.

Before diving into my favorite props for this matchup, let's look at a few notable injuries. The Bills have some concerns at receiver as Gabriel Davis will miss his second straight game with a knee injury, and Diggs was absent from Thursday's practice due to a foot setback.

For the Chiefs, cornerback L'Jarius Sneed has been limited throughout the week of practice. Kansas City surely needs one of their corners who has made big contributions to the league's second-best schedule-adjusted pass defense.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills Prop Bets

Isiah Pacheco Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+120)

Isiah Pacheco has become the unquestioned alpha dog of the Chiefs' backfield. After scoring touchdowns in five straight games, Pacheco could be bound to cross the pylon yet again.

The second-year back out of Rutgers is getting an overwhelming share in the red zone with 88.2% of the rushing attempts over his last five games. His 68.9% red zone share on the season is already exceptional. With an increase of over 20 percentage points in the category, backing Pacheco to score a touchdown could be like taking candy from a baby.

When looking at the matchup, this also points to the Kansas City potentially running the rock in bulk. The Bills tout the 6th-best schedule-adjusted pass defense and the 14th-worst run defense. Along with Pacheco scoring a TD, he could go over his rushing attempts of 14.5 (-138) after totaling at least 18 carries in three of the last four.

Rashee Rice Over 6.5 Receptions (-102)

Following seven consecutive seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards, it's been an underwhelming season for Travis Kelce with 984 yards and 5 touchdowns. Part of Kelce's decline has been due to a lack of help from the receiving corps. Rashee Rice has been perhaps the only consistent receiver for Kansas City since Week 12.

The rookie target has led the team with 7.3 receptions and 9.7 targets per game since Week 12. As usual, Buffalo will likely key in on Kelce. Rice could be poised for another hefty workload.

After totaling 12 targets in two of his last three games, it seems the opportunities will certainly be there for Rice. I have no problem rolling with the averages. Rice has consistently passed six receptions in the second half of the season, and I don't expect that to change on Sunday. Give me the over for Rice's 6.5 receptions; the -102 odds only sweeten the deal.

Josh Allen Under 21.5 Pass Completions (-106)

Thus far, I've focused on props for the Chiefs. It's time to look at the Bills' lead players. As previously mentioned, the Chiefs have the second-best pass defense in football.

On the season, Josh Allen is averaging 33.8 passing attempts and 22.6 completions per game. However, both numbers have taken notable dips over the last five games at 26.8 passing attempts and 17.6 completions per contest. Since Joe Brady took over as the play-caller in Week 11, Buffalo has posted 36.5 rushing attempts per contest compared to 25.4 over the first 10 weeks of the season.

This has also meant more work for running back James Cook, who has logged 16.9 carries per contest since Week 11 (12.0 over first 10 weeks). With Kansas City possessing the eighth-worst adjusted run defense, the Bills could really lean on the ground game.

I like Allen to go under 21.5 pass completions (-106), and Cook going over 14.5 carries (-114) could be a good bet to stack with this pick.

Looking for the latest NFL odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NFL betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.