NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 3/13/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Brandin Podziemski Over 21.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-104)

Stephen Curry remains sidelined for the Golden State Warriors, meaning there's plenty of value to be found in Golden State's player prop market.

While there are a few Golden State players who have stepped up amid Curry's absence, I can't stay away from Brandin Podziemski's combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) prop.

Podziemski has played in five games without Curry. In this split, he is averaging 28.4 PRA. He recorded 21.0 PRA in one of these games, while he netted a minimum of 24.0 PRA in the other four games.

This stellar five-game sample holds up when we check out on/off court stats. When Podz is playing with Curry, he is averaging 24.8 PRA per 36 minutes. But when Curry is on the bench, Podz accumulates 27.6 PRA per 36 minutes.

The Warriors will take on the Dallas Mavericks, so it's quite clear why we have a 233.0 over/under (second-highest on the slate) on our hands. Dallas comes in with the league's ninth-worst defensive rating while also playing at the eighth-fastest pace.

The Mavs let up the fourth-most points, fourth-most rebounds, and fifth-most assists to shooting guards per game.

Podziemski nets a combined 89.7% of his points in either the paint or from behind the arc. Dallas ranks in the top 10 of both three-point makes and paint points allowed.

It's a super friendly matchup for Podz, and he should be granted enough playing time to fill out his stat line. FanDuel Research's projections concur that Podz will outdo the market -- they have him set to record 23.2 PRA this evening.

Zion Williamson Under 35.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-118)

Zion Williamson has been heating up, but I don't think he is primed to crack 35.5 PRA tonight.

A matchup between the New Orleans Pelicans and Cleveland Cavaliers pits two of the top defensive teams against each other. New Orleans comes in with the sixth-best defensive rating, while Cleveland is rocking with the third-best defensive rating.

Cleveland is also playing at the ninth-slowest pace in the NBA. A defensive battle that will likely feature a slow pace doesn't offer us much hope for a state-heavy game.

But even if Zion had an advantageous game environment on deck, clearing 35.5 PRA is still a tall task.

On the season, he is averaging 32.9 PRA per game. He has recorded under 35.5 PRA in 31 of his 53 games (58.5% of contests). These -118 odds, which suggest a 54.1% probability, are at the very least, fair.

Factor in that the Cavs are ceding the fifth-fewest points, 11th-fewest rebounds, and the ninth-fewest assists to power forwards per game, and it seems we should trail the under.

Our projections anticipate Zion to net just 34.1 PRA against Cleveland.

DeMar DeRozan Top Points Scorer in Bulls-Pacers Game (+180)

The Chicago Bulls will visit the Indiana Pacers for a game that features a 229.0 over/under.

DeMar DeRozan's points prop is set at 24.5. Nikola Vucevic, Coby White, and Pascal Siakam's scoring props are all set at 20.5 points, good for the next-highest behind DeRozan.

We can't reasonably say that this means DeRozan will end up leading this game in scoring. A lot can happen in one game, and there are plenty of eligible scorers who can go off on both teams.

But given the discrepancy in the points prop market and DeRozan's matchup against Indiana, I think these +180 odds are worthwhile.

For starters, DeRozan averages 23.0 points per game, which is higher than any other player on Chicago or Indiana.

The Pacers are letting up the fourth-most points per game to small forwards. They also give up the second-most free-throw attempts in the NBA, which is great news for DeRozan. Not only does he net 27.9% of his points from the foul line, but he also averages the sixth-most free-throw attempts in the league.

Further, DeRozan scores 34.6% of his points in the paint, and the Pacers are letting up the second-most points from this area.

Coby White is a solid candidate to steal the spotlight from DeRozan. But White nets 43.6% of his points from behind the arc, while DeRozan scores just 12.6% of his points from downtown. Indiana cedes the fewest three-point attempts and makes in the Association, so it's hard to imagine White having inordinate success from downtown in this one.

I think the market is correct in setting DeRozan's points prop four points higher than the next-best player, so I feel comfortable laying the +180 odds.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.