3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 1/24/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Fred VanVleet Over 16.5 Points (-113)

Fred VanVleet isn't putting up the same numbers that earned him an All-Star selection two seasons ago, but he's still averaging 17.2 points per game and plays a major role for a young and somewhat burgeoning Houston Rockets team.

VanVleet has gone for at least 18 points in five of his last seven games, and I think he is set up to continue this trend in tonight's matchup against the Portland Trail Blazers.

Portland is giving up the fifth-most points per night to point guards. Their inability to stop starting point guards from major scoring nights is evidenced by their recent games. Since just last Wednesday, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored 33 points against the Blazers, D'Angelo Russell netted 34, Spencer Dinwiddie scored 19, and Devin Booker poured in 34.

In Portland's last 15 games, they've surrendered the ninth-most three-point makes (3PM) to guards per 36 minutes. VanVleet is hammering home 53.5% of his points from behind the arc and has drained 5-plus threes in three January contests.

The Blazers will be playing the second game of a back-to-back tonight, which means their already dismal defense could be even weaker.

Jalen Green (illness) is questionable for Houston. While I think VanVleet can shine regardless of Green's status, it doesn't hurt to know that FVV is netting 16.0 points per 37 minutes (VanVleet's minutes per game average) with Green on the court but nets 20.0 points per 37 minutes with Green off the court.

Since VanVleet can go off from downtown and this matchup could provide an avenue to do just that, I'd consider targeting Fred VanVleet to Score 20+ Points at +175. He has scored 20 points in six of his last 12 games, so the recent probability (50.0%) is quite higher than the implied probability (36.4%) at +175.

Bradley Beal Over 27.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-115)

Injuries plagued Bradley Beal from finding consistency in the early months of this season, but he is now back in the swing of things, averaging 29.6 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) in the month of January.

Despite being on a star-studded Phoenix Suns lineup, Beal is having no problem finding his shot. He's averaging 15.8 field-goal attempts (FGA) per night this month and is rocking with a career-high 51.1% field-goal percentage this season.

Beal and the Suns will go up against the Dallas Mavericks for what should be the most competitive game on today's slate (2.5-point spread). NBA fans have an exciting showdown to watch, and Beal has an advantageous matchup against the Mavs.

Dallas surrenders the fourth-most points, second-most rebounds, and fifth-most assists per night to shooting guards. No other team in the league ranks in the top five of all three of those stat categories, so if you're a shooting guard, your best chance to make an impact on the box score is a date with Dallas.

The Mavs also give up the third-most made threes to shooting guards. Beal has played in seven games against teams that rank in the top 10 of 3PM allowed to shooting guards. He went 18 of 36 (50.0% 3P%) from downtown in that split.

Beal sees plenty of work in the paint, netting 48.0% of his points from this area. The Mavs cede the eighth-most paint points per game, so we should expect Beal to get some quality layup looks tonight.

Add in the 121.5 implied team total for Phoenix (second-highest on slate), and I think Beal is set up for a heavy PRA performance.

Jalen Johnson Under 17.5 Points (-106)

Jalen Johnson is averaging 14.9 points per game and has failed to eclipse 17.5 points in 20 of his 29 games this season. The under at a line of 17.5 points has a 68.9% hit rate, which is noticeably higher than the 51.46% implied probability at -106.

But there is a reason the market has Johnson's points line set abnormally high -- Trae Young (concussion) is out for the Atlanta Hawks. Young is averaging a team-high 19.7 FGA per game, so his absence would, in theory, cause the Atlanta scoring duties to be doled out more evenly.

However, this hasn't been the case this season -- at least for Johnson. In four games without Young, Johnson is averaging 15.5 points. He eclipsed 17.5 points in just one of these contests.

It seems that Johnson relies on Young to help him create scoring opportunities. Young averages 10.8 assists per game (second-most in NBA) and is able to create great looks for his teammates. Not only does Young demand added attention from the defense, but he's also an excellent passer, and could, in part, be responsible for Johnson netting 60.2% of his points in the paint.

With Young on the court, Johnson is averaging 16.6 points per 36 minutes. But with Young off the court, Johnson is averaging 16.5 points per 36 minutes. While this difference is marginal, it proves that Young's absence could, if anything, hurt Johnson as a scorer.

The Hawks will go up against the Golden State Warriors. The Warriors are a middle-of-the-road defensive team and give up the 13th-fewest points to power forwards. I think we could see the Warriors' defense tighten up even more now that Draymond Green (suspension) is back. Plus, Golden State hasn't played in nine days, so I think they will come out with energy and make this a tough battle for Johnson and Atlanta.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.