3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 3/19/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 3/19/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Nikola Jokic Over 8.5 Assists (+100)

Nikola Jokic is averaging 9.1 assists per game and has exceeded 8.5 assists in 51.5% of his games.

If we only account for games where Jokic played more than 30 minutes, he is clearing 8.5 assists at a 60.4% rate.

Tonight's showdown versus the Minnesota Timberwolves pits two teams with identical records (47-21) against each other, and the winner of this battle will be tied for first place in the Western Conference standings.

Based on this, I'd expect Jokic to surpass 30 minutes this evening, so I'll happily side with the value on these even-money odds.

But beyond the value, we may find an assist-friendly matchup against Minnesota.

The T-Wolves surrender the second-most assists per game to centers, and while Minnesota boasts the best defense in the NBA, there is a positive correlation between Jokic's assists numbers and tough defenses.

There have been 13 occasions in which Jokic played more than 30 minutes and went up against a top 8 defense. In this split, he is averaging 10.9 dimes and eclipsed 8.5 dimes in 9 out of 13 games.

FanDuel Research's projections agree that tonight's game will be both minute and assist-heavy for Jokic. They have him dishing out 10.1 assists off 35.73 minutes this evening.

Nic Claxton Under 21.5 Pts + Reb (-113)

Nicolas Claxton is averaging 21.9 combined points and rebounds (PR) per game, but I think he'll stop short of that number when he and the Brooklyn Nets take on the New Orleans Pelicans tonight.

For starters, this game environment does not look appetizing, especially for Brooklyn.

A 215.0 over/under is a modest game total in this day and age and leaves the Nets with just a 103.5 implied team total.

Claxton has recorded under 21.5 PR in 10 of the last 12 games where Brooklyn scored 110 points or less.

New Orleans gives up the eighth-fewest points and the seventh-fewest rebounds per game.

They also allow the sixth-fewest paint points and the seventh-fewest free-throw attempts per game. This does not bode well for Claxton, who scores just about all of his points (98.2%) in either the paint or behind the stripe.

As of late, the Pelicans have been playing the best defense in basketball. On the season, they own the sixth-best defensive rating in the league, and in their last 15 games, they tout the best defensive rating in the NBA.

Claxton has been horrible against solid defenses. He has played 12 games against teams that rank in the top 4 of defensive rating. In this split, he is averaging just 17.7 PR and recorded under 21.5 PR in 9 out of 12 games.

These teams met up on one occasion earlier this season, and the Pels limited Claxton to just 11 PR. I'd expect another slow game from Claxton.

PJ Washington Over 16.5 Pts + Reb (-111)

Since joining the Dallas Mavericks in mid-February, PJ Washington is averaging 16.4 PR per game.

Factor in a matchup against the eighth-worst defense that also plays at the league's third-fastest pace, the San Antonio Spurs, and it seems Washington is primed to fall on the right side of his PR prop.

The Spurs let up the most points and the most rebounds per game to forwards. They also give up the most three-point makes to this position, as well as the third-most paint points overall.

Washington nets a combined 87.6% of his points from either the paint or behind the arc, so we know he is in for a friendly matchup.

The Mavs are favored by 9.0 points in this one, while our projections anticipate Washington to play 32.25 minutes. He is averaging 17.6 PR in games where he has played at least 30 minutes.

Our projections are bullish on Washington's PR prop. They have him recording 19.3 PR against San Antonio, which makes sense given the Spurs take the cake when it comes to poor defense against forwards.

Add in a slate-high 234.5 over/under and two teams that rank in the top 10 of pace, and the over seems like a solid move.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.