3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Tuesday 12/26/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Cam Johnson Over 14.5 Points (-102)

The Detroit Pistons could make history tonight -- not the good kind. They've lost 26 games in a row, tying the NBA record for consecutive losses during a season, and will now hit the repeat button on Saturday night's matchup versus the Brooklyn Nets.

But despite Detroit's historically inept season, the Nets are still favored by only 6.5 points tonight, so I feel confident in targeting Cameron Johnson notwithstanding the matchup that would typically constitute blowout potential.

Johnson has scored 15-plus points in three straight games and is averaging 18.3 points in that span. This includes an 18-point performance against Detroit on Saturday.

His dominance against the Pistons is nothing new. Dating back to 2021, Johnson has cleared this prop in four straight games against Detroit, averaging 18.0 points across those contests.

If we look at how Detroit's defense has performed against small forwards this season, it becomes clear why we should focus on Johnson. Although Detroit sacrifices the seventh-fewest three-point makes (3PM) per game, they allow small forwards the seventh-most 3PM per game. Johnson scores 50.6% of his points from behind the arc and is shooting the three-ball at a solid 40.0% clip.

Detroit also surrenders the 10th-most points per game to small forwards, and they allow the seventh-most points in the paint, which is where Johnson nets 33.8% of his points.

Given Detroit's fifth-worst defensive rating, the Nets have been handed a 118.5-point implied team total in this contest. numberFire is siding with the under in this respect, projecting Brooklyn to put up 115.7 points. The Nets have scored between 115 and 118 points on seven occasions this season -- Johnson cleared this prop in all but one of those games.

Mike Conley Over 11.5 Points (-102)

Mike Conley has scored 12-plus points in 8 of his last 10 games, and I love his matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.

The Thunder give up the 12th-most points per game to point guards. But more importantly, they allow the third-most 3PM to this position. Conley scores 60.7% of his points from downtown and is shooting the three-pointer at a 44.5% clip, which is the 13th-best percentage in the NBA and third-best percentage among all point guards in the league.

Conley is averaging 2.3 3PM per game, and the Thunder play at the sixth-quickest pace in the league, so it's hard to imagine he doesn't capitalize on these scoring opportunities.

Twelve points is a low bar to clear for someone who seems primed to drain at least a pair of threes. Plus, OKC allows the second-most free-throw attempts to point guards, and Conley touts a league-best 95.2% free-throw percentage -- we should be quite interested in what could essentially be free points.

The 2.0-point spread in this Minnesota Timberwolves-Thunder matchup should also ensure that Minny's starting point guard sees the court for proper time.

These teams squared off earlier this season, and though Conley mustered just nine points in this contest, he did shoot a season-low 21.4% from the field in that one (3-14 FG). The numbers prove Conley is one of the more accurate shooters in the league, so I'm bullish on the over.

Jalen Williams Under 24.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-102)

Although we have a nine-game NBA slate tonight, I'm finding value in this Timberwolves-Thunder game.

Jalen Williams (illness) is listed as questionable for tonight's contest. Though we don't have confirmation on Williams' status, I am too keen on the under for his points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) prop to ignore it.

Williams is averaging 25.3 PRA this season, a tick above where his PRA line is set. But the T-Wolves come into tonight with the best defensive rating in basketball. Williams has played in seven games against teams that rank in the top 10 of defensive rating -- recording under 24.5 PRA in five of those games.

Minnesota is particularly unforgiving to forwards. They allow this position the second-fewest points, second-fewest rebounds and fourth-fewest assists per 36 minutes.

Williams nets 89.5% of his points from either the paint, free-throw line, or three-point line -- the Timberwolves cede the third-fewest 3PM, eighth-fewest free-throw makes and eighth-fewest paint points per game.

It's a tough matchup for Williams, as evidenced by his 16.0 PRA performance against Minnesota just last month. In fact, Williams has never done well against the T-Wolves -- in three games versus Minnesota where he played at least 27 minutes (an average of 31.3 minutes in this split), he averaged only 17.0 PRA.

If Williams is good to go tonight, I think the under is the side to be on for this prop.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.