3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 12/28/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Cade Cunningham Over 23.5 Points (-102)

The Detroit Pistons were handed their 27th straight loss on Tuesday, breaking the NBA record for longest losing streak in a single season. Now they have to go on the road to face the Boston Celtics, who are undefeated (14-0) at TD Garden this season.

But while the Pistons are down bad, someone still has to score for them, and Cade Cunningham has been filling that role quite nicely. Cunningham is averaging 31.8 points across his last five games, and we should be interested in his matchup against Boston.

The Celtics give up the fourth-most points to point guards. This season, Cunningham has played in eight contests against teams that rank in the top 10 for most points allowed to point guards -- the Pistons' guard averaged 28.0 points across those games.

Boston also cedes the second-most three-point makes (3PM) to this position, and Cunningham nets 24.3% of his points from behind the arc. Further, Cunningham is scoring 10.0 points per game as the ball handler off of pick-and-rolls (eighth-most in NBA), and the Celtics surrender the fifth-most points in this split.

It's a friendly matchup for Cunningham, and he's proven he can take advantage of it.

Jayson Tatum Under 30.5 Points (-125)

Let's stay with this Pistons-Celtics matchup and target the under for Jayson Tatum.

Tatum was listed as questionable (injury management) for this contest but has since been confirmed as available. He takes a lot of pride in suiting up for every game that he can and has voiced his distaste for load management-based rest, so it makes sense that he is available tonight.

But just because Tatum will start this game does not mean he will finish it. The Celtics won't want to stretch their star player thin in a matchup against a team that is trending toward perhaps being the worst squad in NBA history, which means a performance of at least 31 seems more out of the question than not for Tatum.

And for as good as Tatum is, he's still scored 31-plus points in just eight games this season, giving the under a solid 71.4% hit rate at this line.

Jaylen Brown (back) is out tonight, and his absence typically juices Tatum's numbers. Dating back to last season, Tatum has scored 31-plus points in 8 of 14 games without Brown.

But when Brown is out, it usually means Tatum has to exhaust all efforts to secure a win for Boston. That shouldn't be the case tonight against Detroit. numberFire has Boston winning this one by 17 points. In Boston games that have been decided by at least 14 points this year, Tatum is averaging 27.8 points.

The Pistons give up the sixth-fewest 3PM per game, which is where Tatum relies on netting 33.3% of his points.

While I wouldn't be surprised if Tatum goes off in the first half of this game, I don't think this matchup will provide enough full-game opportunity for me to side with anything but the under.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 10.5 Points (-104)

Aaron Gordon (face/hand) is out for the Denver Nuggets tonight, and I don't think the market has properly adjusted for the boost this could give Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

Caldwell-Pope is averaging 10.2 points per game this season and plays a fairly muted role on Denver's offense. But with Gordon out, he is afforded more opportunity.

Last season, KCP played in 11 games without Gordon. He averaged 12.8 points in that sample (whereas he averaged 10.8 on the season) and cleared this prop in 8 out of 11 of those games.

We have encouraging Gordon-less samples from this season, too. KCP has averaged 13.3 points and scored 11-plus points in three out of four games with Gordon out.

This leaves us with a 73.3% hit rate (11 out of 15) on over 10.5 points in KCP's recent sans-Gordon games.

Tonight, he'll go up against the Memphis Grizzlies, a team that allows the fourth-most 3PM in the league. KCP scores 44.3% of his points from behind the arc and is rocking with a solid 42.1% three-point percentage. Memphis also allows the ninth-most points off turnovers, which is where KCP nets 17.4% of his baskets.

A glance at KCP's game log shows us that he is prone to dud performances. But a matchup against a three-point sacrificing team and KCP's history without Gordon has me confident in the over.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.