3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 12/21/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Patrick Williams Over 12.5 Points (+100)

Patrick Williams has scored 13-plus points in six of his last nine games and has been averaging 13.8 points per game for the Chicago Bulls since Zach LaVine (foot) has been out.

The Bulls have a juicy -- by Chicago's standards -- 117.5-point implied total in tonight's matchup against the San Antonio Spurs. In seven games since LaVine has been out and the Bulls have scored 116 or more points, Williams is averaging 15.7 points.

We're not short on reasons to target this matchup against San Antonio. The Spurs surrender the ninth-most points to power forwards and are most vulnerable in the same spots where Williams finds the most scoring success.

Williams touts a 41.1 three-point percentage (3P%; fifth-highest among all power forwards in the NBA) and has drained 14 three-pointers in his last five games. He scores 41.6% of his points from behind the arc and will now get a shot at a San Antonio team that allows the second-most three-point makes (3PM) in the league.

These two teams matched up earlier this month to the tune of a 20-point performance from Williams. San Antonio's weak defense (seventh-worst defensive rating) has me happy to get Williams at even-money.

Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 32.5 Points (-112)

Giannis Antetokounmpo scored a career-high 64 points last week against the Indiana Pacers, shattering the Milwaukee Bucks' single-game scoring record, but we shouldn't feel like basketball philistines to target the under with his points prop tonight.

To start, Giannis held an injury designation (foot) for tonight's contest but has since been marked as probable to suit up against the Orlando Magic. While I wouldn't place a ton of value in his potential limitations -- it's not like the Bucks are scared to let him sit games out when necessary -- it does provide glimpses of a shorter-than-usual night for the former MVP, not to mention the blowout potential with this 9.0-point spread.

I'm finding value in this tough matchup against Orlando. The Magic have the fourth-best defensive rating in the league and give up the fifth-fewest points to power forwards. Giannis has played in just four contests against teams (including Orlando) that fare in the top 10 of fewest points allowed to power forwards -- he averaged 29.5 points across those games.

Orlando's paint defense is solid, allowing the 10th-fewest paint points as a whole and 7th-fewest to forwards per 36 minutes, which is where Giannis does the majority of his work, netting 67.3% of his points.

Add in the injury designation, blowout potential, and the possibility that he continues to take the few games following his 64-point outburst a bit easier, and I'm down with the under.

Max Strus to Score 20+ Points (+145)

Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, and Evan Mobley are all out for the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. Those players shoot a combined 49.3 field-goal attempts (FGA) per game, which is 55.8% of all FGA by the Cavs team as a whole (88.4 FGA per game).

The Cavs couldn't be more shorthanded on this second night of back-to-backs, and I expect Max Strus to pull no punches when it comes to firing off shot attempts.

Strus is averaging 7.9 3PA per game (17th-most in NBA), and with the Cleveland studs absent, the potential for sloppy defense could turn this one into a fairly fast-paced game. Plus, a matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans is a good one for him.

No team in the league allows more 3PA per game than the Pelicans do. As mentioned, Strus isn't shy from downtown. There have been eight games this season where he has fired off 10 or more 3PA, and 12 games where he has let 9 or more treys fly.

And beyond the points he could net from downtown, New Orleans is also giving up the 12th-most points per game to shooting guards, in general.

Strus is averaging 19.5 points (18- and 21-point performances) in two games without both Mitchell and Garland this season. I'll take the juicy odds that he can net 20 points in this friendly matchup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.