3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Thursday 1/25/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

John Collins Over 19.5 Pts + Reb (-113)

John Collins is averaging 21.4 combined points and rebounds (PR) this season. He's exceeded 19.5 PR in 31 of his 41 games (75.6% hit rate), including 9 of his 12 games in January (75.0% hit rate).

Collins has no injury designation, and there has been no indication of him being removed from the starting lineup for the Utah Jazz. So why are the implied odds (53.05%) at -113 so much lower than the actual hit rate -- both long-term and short-term -- for over 19.5 PR?

I think there are a couple of reasons why the market has this line set a bit lower than it should be, but none of them outweigh the value we are getting. Collins is a foul-trouble candidate. But in four January games where he has committed five fouls, he eclipsed 19.5 PR in each one. He has also, at times, seen a dip in his minutes per game this month. But as mentioned, that hasn't stopped Collins from surpassing 19.5 PR in 75.0% of those games.

When Collins is sent to the bench for more time than usual, it's because of his poor defense. He not only has the worst defensive rating on the Jazz, but he has the eighth-worst defensive rating in the entire league (among players who have suited up for at least 30 games and play at least 20.0 minutes per game).

However, in Utah's last eight games, Collins touts a better defensive rating than any of the bigs on the Utah bench (Kelly Olynyk, Walker Kessler). In that same span, he ranks fifth on the team in defensive win shares and plus/minus ratio.

He's shown better defensive qualities as of late, is an efficient scorer, and is Utah's lead rebounder. Add in a matchup against the Washington Wizards, and I have a hard time fading Collins tonight.

The Wizards surrender the most points and rebounds to centers per 36 minutes. Washington has the second-worst defensive rating in the NBA and allows the second-most paint points per game, which is where Collins nets 52.7% of his points. The Wizards are also drawing the third-fewest fouls from centers, so I'm not particularly concerned about foul trouble rearing its head for Collins.

Collins has the friendliest matchup of all, and the 75.6% hit rate on over 19.5 PR this season is the real deal when compared to the 53.05% implied probability tonight.

Stephen Curry Over 3.5 Rebounds (-146)

The odds here are crummy, but Stephen Curry has secured over 3.5 boards in enough games (60.5%) this season to make this prop worthwhile, especially with a matchup against the Sacramento Kings.

On the season, Curry is averaging 4.2 rebounds per game. Draymond Green (suspension) is back for the Golden State Warriors, and we've seen Curry's rebound numbers go up alongside Green. Curry is averaging 5.1 boards per night in 16 games with Green, and he eclipsed 3.5 rebounds in 12 of those games.

Sacramento surrenders the second-most boards to point guards. We've seen Curry take advantage of this on three occasions this season, netting 6.3 rebounds per game against the Kings and clearing 3.5 rebounds in all three of those contests.

And dating back to last season, Curry has secured more than 3.5 rebounds in seven straight regular-season games against the Kings, averaging 6.4 boards in that span. If we add in last season's Western Conference playoffs series between these squads, Curry has surpassed 3.5 rebounds in 12 of his last 14 games against Sacramento.

This matchup has become a burgeoning rivalry, and the 2.0-point spread and 243.0-point over/under for this one show us that tonight should be no different. A fast-paced, close game should allow Curry to see ample court time and continue his rebounding trend.

Tyrese Maxey Under 29.5 Points (-120)

The market is projecting a big game from Tyrese Maxey tonight. Fair enough, considering his competition for the night, the Indiana Pacers, have become famous for their high-scoring games, and Indiana allowed Maxey to drop a career-high 50 points on them this past November.

However, the small sample we've seen from this Indiana team since Pascal Siakam joined may indicate a more defense-focused team. And as awesome as Maxey is, he is not yet a consistent 30-plus point scorer.

On the season, Maxey is averaging 25.8 points per game. He has eclipsed 29.5 points in just 2 of his last 11 games.

The Pacers give up the 13th-fewest points and the fewest three-point makes (3PM) to point guards. Maxey relies on scoring 36.4% of his points from behind the arc.

This season, Indiana has been playing at the second-fastest pace and has given up the second-most points per game (122.9). But in three games since Siakam joined the team, they've allowed just 116.3 points per contest and have been playing at the 12th-slowest pace in the league. It's a small sample -- and Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) remains out for Indiana -- but it could be indicative of how this new-look Pacers team will shape up with Siakam.

The Sixers are coming off two days of rest, and a rested and healthy Joel Embiid will likely shoulder a huge offensive burden, which could limit Maxey's potential. Maxey has scored 30-plus points in just 3 of his last 14 games alongside Embiid, so I'll side with the under.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.