NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets for NBA Finals Game 4 (Celtics-Mavericks)

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for NBA Finals Game 4 (Celtics-Mavericks)

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change after this article is published. All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook.

NBA Prop Bets

Luka Doncic Under 50.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-108)

The NBA Finals have left us with much to be desired on the excitement front, as the Boston Celtics own a throttling 3-0 series lead over the Dallas Mavericks.

Dallas has shown little-to-no life for the duration of this series and has not given us a reason to trust them heading into Game 4.

With this in mind, let's target the under on Luka Doncic's combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) prop.

We know Doncic has an immense impact on the stat sheet night in and night out, but he can't always piece together the scoring with the playmaking. This has been especially true against a defense as good as Boston.

In the postseason, he is averaging 46.9 PRA and has recorded under 50.5 PRA in 13 out of 20 games.

He's been worse on his home floor, netting 45.1 PRA and dipping below 50.5 PRA in eight out of nine games.

Based on this, it's safe to say that the market may have inordinately large expectations for Doncic on Friday.

Whichever way this game leans, it seems there is a clear path for the under on this prop to come in. If Dallas manages to send the series back to Boston, it will mean that they picked up their defensive efforts in Game 4, which would likely result in a slow-paced game.

If Boston comes out strong, I'd expect Dallas to wave the white flag before Luka has a chance to collect upwards of 50.5 PRA.

Jrue Holiday Over 23.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-104)

Jrue Holiday is averaging 23.7 PRA and has cleared 23.5 PRA in 8 out of 17 playoff games.

However, if we only look at the games where Kristaps Porzingis was out, Holiday is netting 25.0 PRA and exceeded 23.5 PRA in 6 out of 10 contests.

Road games sans Porzingis have been even more fruitful for Holiday, who is averaging 26.2 PRA and who has surpassed 23.5 PRA in four out of five games in this split.

His status as Boston's floor general makes him an intriguing player to back.

He's averaging the second-most minutes per game (behind only Jayson Tatum) and shows a high ceiling in each statistical category, notching as many as 28 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists throughout this postseason.

Holiday has some untapped potential in the assists column, too. In the regular season, he converted potential assists to the stat sheet at a 60.0% rate. He saw a strikingly similar 60.5% conversion rate in the Eastern Conference playoffs. But in the Finals, he is converting potential assists at just a 46.2% clip.

Overall, I'm more interested in targeting prop overs for Boston instead of Dallas. The Mavs might be more likely to yank some of their starters should they smell the signs of a sweep, while Boston's starters may have a longer leash on their path to a championship victory.

Derrick White 4+ Made Threes (+145)

Through just three games, the Boston Celtics have managed to outscore the Dallas Mavericks by a resounding 63 points from the three-point line.

Dallas has forced Tatum into some tough looks from downtown, but beyond him, the great outside looks have been going up at will.

Boston's league-best efficiency is thanks to a keen focus on shot selection, and Derrick White's 62.4% true shooting percentage, second behind Holiday's team-leading 63.0%, plays a big role in that. They want him to shoot threes, and he hasn't had a tough time getting good looks, so let's target just that for Friday.

White has drained at least four three-pointers in 47.1% of postseason games, so these +145 odds (40.8% implied probability) may be short-selling his potential.

He averages a team-leading 3.5 three-point makes (3PM) and a 40.7% three-point percentage. White nailed a trio of threes in Game 1 of the Finals and has gone on to make four in the two subsequent games.

Not only do I expect his exciting shot volume to stick in Game 4, but I also think there is a tad of credence to him getting some easy looks toward the end of the game should the outcome go in Boston's favor. The Mavericks could ease off on defense -- if that's possible -- and Boston has never been known to pass up an open outside shot.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.