3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 3/4/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

John Collins Over 27.5 Pts + Reb (-120)

This is a big number to reach, but a pair of injuries for the Utah Jazz and an ultra-friendly matchup against the Washington Wizards could allow John Collins to make a killing on the stat sheet tonight.

First, let's take a look at who Utah is missing in this one. Lauri Markkanen (quad) and Walker Kessler (foot) will both be sidelined while Kelly Olynyk, the player who rounded out Utah's gaggle of big men, was dealt prior to last month's trade deadline.

Collins is averaging 29.4 combined points and rebounds (PR) per 36 minutes. But when Collins is on the court without these three aforementioned players, he is netting 33.0 PR per 36 minutes.

Based on this, Collins would need to play 30.6 minutes this evening to eclipse 27.5 PR. In nine games without Kessler this season, Collins played 33.4 minutes per night. In eight games with Markkanen out of the lineup, Collins played 32.9 minutes each contest.

Utah's depth chart is thin, so I would expect Collins to see heavy usage. This game environment is awesome, too. A 240.5 over/under serves as the highest on today's slate while the 6.0-point spread that favors the Jazz shows little risk for a blowout.

The Wizards have surrendered more points and rebounds to centers than any other team in the league.

Collins nets 58.3% of his points in the paint, while Washington gives up the most paint points in the NBA, both on the season and across their last 15 games.

For a big man, Collins is an insistent three-point shooter, scoring 24.6% of his points from behind the arc. The Wizards, meanwhile, let up the second-most three-point makes (3PM) in the NBA.

Collins recorded 38.0 PR against the Wizards in January, the lone matchup between these two teams this season. Add in the losses of Markkanen, Kessler, and Olynyk, and it looks like Collins will take on a massive role tonight.

Anfernee Simons Under 28.5 Pts + Ast (-111)

The Portland Trail Blazers will visit the Minnesota Timberwolves for what is set up to be an ugly game. The T-Wolves are favored by a whopping 14.0 points, while the Blazers come in with just a 97.5 implied team total (slate-low).

This leads me to an Anfernee Simons under. On the season, Simons is averaging 27.7 combined points and assists (PA). I have a hard time imagining he can outdo his season average against the best defense in basketball.

Minnesota owns the best defensive rating in the NBA by a pretty wide margin. For context, the gap in defensive rating between Minnesota and the next-best team is identical to the difference between the second- and eighth-best teams.

Simons has played in five full games against teams that rank in the top five of defensive rating, including Minnesota. In this five-game split, he averaged just 18.0 PA and failed to exceed 28.5 PA in any contest.

As you could probably guess, the T-Wolves let up the fewest points and assists to guards per 36 minutes.

Simons scores 44.0% of his points from behind the arc, but Minnesota is allowing the fifth-fewest three-point attempts (3PA) and the second-fewest 3PM per game.

Portland's 97.5 implied team total is jarringly low, so despite the Blazers coming in with a thin depth chart, I'm not convinced Simons will have enough to show for tonight.

FanDuel Research's projections, which are powered by numberFire, anticipate Simons to record 24.6 PA.

Paul George Over 28.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-106)

The Los Angeles Clippers will take on the Milwaukee Bucks in what will be the first meeting of the season between these two championship contenders.

We should be in store for an exciting game, and Paul George's combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) prop could be worth targeting.

On the season, George is averaging 30.9 PRA. He has surpassed 28.5 PRA in 59.3% of his games, while these -106 odds imply just a 51.5% probability.

The value of this prop is solid, not to mention the pace-up nature of this game for George and the Clippers.

Los Angeles is playing at the 10th-slowest pace in the league, while Milwaukee is playing at the fifth-fastest pace. George has suited up in 18 contests against teams that rank in the top 10 of pace. In this split, he is averaging 32.4 PRA and has recorded over 28.5 PRA in 12 of those 18 games.

Over their last 15 games, Milwaukee has let up the ninth-most 3PM to forwards per 36 minutes. Luckily for George, he nets 43.9% of his points from behind the arc and is shooting the 10th-most three-pointers in the NBA.

Milwaukee has also given up the 11th-most dimes to small forwards over their last 30 games, as well as the 10th-most rebounds to forwards per 36 minutes over their last 15 games.

Our projections have George going for 29.8 PRA in this one.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.