3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 3/25/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 3/25/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Derrick White Over 14.5 Points (-115)

Jrue Holiday (shoulder) has been ruled out for tonight's game between the Boston Celtics and Atlanta Hawks, which makes for a perfect time to target Derrick White's points prop.

White is averaging 15.4 points per game this season and has cleared 14.5 points at the same rate (53.0%) as the implied probability on these -115 odds.

But once we account for his production sans Holiday, it's clear we are getting an awesome deal on this prop.

This season, White has played in 10 games without Holiday. In this split, he is averaging 18.2 points and surpassed 14.5 points in 9 out of 10 games.

He's also averaging 20.5 points per 36 minutes when Holiday is off the court and nets just 14.5 points per 36 minutes when sharing the court with Holiday.

Regardless of the matchup, it's easy to love White's potential tonight. Factor in a date with the Hawks, and I can't help but think the market is underrating White's scoring potential.

Atlanta gives up the second-most points per game to guards. They also let up the second-most three-point makes (3PM) to guards, while White nets 51.9% of his points from behind the arc.

The Hawks are playing at the fifth-fastest pace in the league, so this is also a pace-up opportunity for White, as Boston ranks 18th in pace.

Myles Turner Over 21.5 Pts + Reb (-113)

Myles Turner is averaging 25.0 combined points and rebounds (PR) and has cleared 21.5 PR in 70.5% of games where he played more than 20 minutes.

These -113 odds suggest just a 53.1% probability, so I'm bullish on the over from a value perspective.

The Indiana Pacers will visit the Los Angeles Clippers in what will be the second leg of a back-to-back for both teams. This could create a pretty fun game environment. Indiana is already playing at the league's second-fastest pace, and if fatigue rears its head for either side, I imagine it would come in the form of a more lax defense.

The Clippers own the fourth-best record in a tough-as-nails Western Conference, but they've been pretty bad as of late. Not only have they dropped five of their last eight games, but they've also been struggling with the league's fifth-worst defensive rating over their last 15 games.

Against centers in this same 15-game span, they rank 18th in points and 14th in rebounds allowed to the position. Further, they've been giving up the sixth-most 3PM to centers, which is where Turner nets 33.3% of his points.

While I still wouldn't call the Clippers a friendly matchup, they're not exactly a tough one, either. Turner is clearing 21.5 PR at too high of a rate for me to fade him here. FanDuel Research's projections support this, forecasting Turner to net 22.5 PR this evening.

Amen Thompson Over 12.5 Reb + Ast (+104)

The Houston Rockets won't have much depth in their frontcourt tonight.

Alperen Sengun and Cam Whitmore remain sidelined, while Jabari Smith will be serving a one-game suspension.

Enter Amen Thompson, a 2023 lottery pick who should be given a longer-than-normal leash against the Portland Trail Blazers.

As a starter, Thompson is averaging 13.8 combined rebounds and assists (RA) and playing 30.8 minutes per game.

He's played more than 15 minutes in a pair of games without Smith. The results of these games included 14 RA and 19 RA.

Thompson has also played at least 28 minutes in four games with Sengun out of the lineup. He put up 14 RA, 15 RA, 12 RA, and 16 RA in this split.

While Thompson has yet to play a game without both Sengun and Smith, this past Saturday's game could be an indication of his potential. On Saturday, Sengun was out, and Smith was ejected just nine minutes into the game. Naturally, Thompson took on a heavier stat load, recording 16 RA.

I think he's in a great spot to produce tonight, especially with this matchup against the Blazers.

Portland owns the league's eighth-worst defensive rating and could be without Deandre Ayton (elbow) in this one. Ayton averages 11.1 rebounds per game and has been ruling the boards as of late, grabbing 13.9 rebounds per game thus far in March. If Ayton can't suit up, Thompson will have an easier time on the glass.

Regardless, I'll take these +104 odds in a game where Thompson seems primed to produce.

Take your sports betting to the next level with the FanDuel Parlay Hub! Explore a curated selection of popular parlays for trending games on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Looking for the latest NBA odds? Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook and check out all of the NBA betting options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.