NBA

3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 3/11/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 3/11/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Brandin Podziemski Over 22.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-113)

Stephen Curry (ankle) will miss tonight's contest between the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs, so let's look for Brandin Podziemski to take advantage of the inevitable increase in his role.

When sharing the court with Curry, Podz is averaging 24.9 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) per 36 minutes, but when Curry is on the bench, he is accumulating 27.6 PRA per 36 minutes.

At this Curry-less rate, he would need to play 30.0 minutes to eclipse 22.5 PRA. Luckily, Podziemski has already stepped into a pretty big role during his rookie season. In February, he averaged 31.9 minutes per game, and he's played 32.8 minutes in four games with Curry out of the lineup.

Not only does Podz play more when Curry is gone, but he's also backed up those minutes by producing. In four games without Curry, he is averaging 29.1 PRA per night.

The Spurs should prove to be a friendly matchup, too.

San Antonio is surrendering the fifth-most points, third-most rebounds, and the most assists to shooting guards.

Podziemski scores 51.0% of his points in the paint while the Spurs cede the third-most paint points per game.

These teams met up over the weekend, and the Warriors failed to capitalize on their lowly opponent, losing by a score of 126-113. Despite Podz shooting just 28.6% from the field in this game and Golden State struggling as a whole, the rookie still managed to record 21.0 PRA.

San Antonio allows their opponents to shoot the ball at the league's seventh-best clip, so I don't foresee another poor shooting night from Podziemski. With Curry out and a date with the Spurs on deck, he should have plenty to show in this game.

Isaiah Stewart Over 18.5 Pts + Reb (+100)

Two of the worst teams in the NBA -- the Charlotte Hornets and Detroit Pistons -- will face off tonight.

Detroit struggles with the third-worst net rating in the NBA, whereas Charlotte ranks dead last in net rating, so we should be in for a messy battle.

With this as the expectation, let's turn to Isaiah Stewart's combined points and rebounds (PR) prop.

In the right environment, Stewart can rack up PR with efficiency. He's averaging 19.6 PR when playing 30-plus minutes and going up against a team that ranks in the bottom five of defensive rating. Charlotte has the third-worst defensive rating while Stewart averages 30.9 minutes and is projected to play 32.19 minutes in this one.

Stewart has played 30-plus minutes in 15 contests against the bottom-15 defensive teams. In this split, he has exceeded 18.5 PR in 9 out of 15 games while recording at least 18.0 PR in 13 out of 15 games.

The Hornets surrender the third-most rebounds and the sixth-most points per game to power forwards. They're also letting up the fifth-most putback points per game, which presents a solid avenue for Stewart to rack up PR.

Based on this, it makes sense that Stewart went for 19.0 and 22.0 PR in two games against Charlotte this season, and I expect him to reach those numbers once again.

FanDuel Research's projections also have faith in this matchup, anticipating Stewart to net 19.4 PR this evening.

Kyrie Irving Over 28.5 Pts + Ast (-111)

Kyrie Irving is averaging 30.5 combined points and assists (PA) and has surpassed 28.5 PA in 61.9% of his games, so I think the market might be a tad off in assigning the over on this prop with just a 52.6% probability.

If we take out a pair of games where Irving played less than 26 minutes -- he is playing 34.3 minutes per game this season -- then he is clearing 28.5 PA at a 65.0% clip. The value of this prop is strong, and Irving's matchup for the night isn't too shabby, either.

The Dallas Mavericks will visit the Chicago Bulls, a team that is struggling with the Association's eighth-worst defensive rating over their last 15 games.

In this same span, Chicago is giving up the fourth-most points and the fourth-most assists to guards per game. Irving is coming into this matchup at the perfect time.

The Bulls cede more three-point makes (3PM) than any other team in the league. Irving is shooting the three-ball at a career-best 41.9% clip and scoring 35.3% of his points from behind the arc.

Every three-point shooter on Dallas -- with the exception of Luka Doncic -- is being assisted on, at minimum, 85.7% of their 3PM.

Whether Irving is shooting or passing the ball, his PA numbers should benefit from facing a poor three-point defense.

This game features a 232.5 over/under and a 4.0-point spread. In 22 games where either Dallas or their opponent came in favored by four points or less, Irving is averaging 32.5 PA.

Our projections concur this is a great spot for Irving. They have him set to record 30.4 PA tonight.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.