3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 2/5/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Draymond Green Over 14.5 Pts + Reb (-122)

Draymond Green has been embroiled in on-court controversy this season, but since returning from suspension, he has been a reliable player for the Golden State Warriors.

In seven games back, Green is averaging 15.9 combined points and rebounds (PR), a tad above his 15.4 PR average on the season. He has eclipsed 14.5 PR in 13 of his 22 games, which means he is hitting the over at this line at a higher rate (59.1%) than the 54.9% implied probability at -122.

But in 17 games where Green has played at least 23 minutes (he is averaging 26.9 minutes per game), he has surpassed 14.5 PR in all but three contests. When Green sees proper court time, he's hitting over 14.5 PR at an 82.4% clip, so I'm high on him in this matchup against the Brooklyn Nets.

Green has been ejected from the game three times this season and is a foul-trouble candidate. However, these concerns will not deter me from targeting the over.

The Nets are drawing the fourth-fewest fouls per game, as well as the third-fewest fouls from forwards. And since receiving an indefinite suspension, Green has been emphatic about the importance of showing up for his team. He has been playing 34.5 minutes per game since rejoining Golden State's starting lineup, and since he's clearing over 14.5 PR at an 82.4% rate when playing just 23 minutes or more, I'm seeing plenty of value in this prop.

Add in that the Nets have been surrendering the fourth-most points and rebounds to power forwards in their last seven games, and it seems the over is the side to be on.

Onyeka Okongwu Over 12.5 Points (+102)

Clint Capela (left adductor strain), starting center for the Atlanta Hawks, is out for tonight's game against the Los Angeles Clippers. It seems apt to target Atlanta's backup center Onyeka Okongwu to get some work done in Capela's absence.

Earlier this season, Capela missed a pair of games for the Hawks. Okongwu made use of the added opportunity that came with this, averaging 17.5 points across the span (16 and 19 points).

When sharing the court with Capela, Okongwu is netting 10.5 points per 36 minutes. But when Capela is on the bench, Okongu is accumulating 14.4 points per 36 minutes.

Okongwu will be in the starting lineup for Atlanta, and though he's started only three games this season, he scored at least 14.0 points in all three of those contests.

The Clippers should serve as a middle-of-the-road matchup for Okongwu. LAC ranks 13th in paint points allowed to centers per 36 minutes, which is where Okongwu is scoring 69.7% of his points.

But though the Clippers are not a team that can be run over, they have been playing at a significantly slower pace (fifth-slowest) than the Hawks (fourth-fastest). A pace-up game should lead to the Clippers surrendering more points than normal, and it doesn't hurt that a fast-paced game typically favors interior scoring.

Based on how Okongwu has performed in Atlanta's starting lineup and without Capela, I am happy to side with the plus odds here.

Kyrie Irving Under 27.5 Points (-120)

Kyrie Irving (thumb) has missed six straight games for the Dallas Mavericks but is probable for tonight's contest against the Philadelphia 76ers.

Time off and a thumb injury could certainly affect a player's scoring production, but the market seems to think Irving won't miss a beat. I am of the opinion that we should have our doubts about Irving.

On the season, Irving is averaging 25.2 points per game. He has failed to exceed 27.5 points in 18 of his 27 games this season, which means he is hitting the under for this line at a noticeably higher clip (66.7%) than the 54.6% implied probability courtesy of these -120 odds.

This is a solid value bet even if Irving wasn't coming into tonight off of an injury. Plus, Irving is netting just 22.5 points per contest on the road this season. He has failed to score more than 27.5 points in eight of his 11 away games.

The Sixers will be without Joel Embiid (left meniscus), which will undoubtedly hurt their team on both ends of the floor. In 14 Embiid-less games this season, the Sixers have been surrendering 118.4 points per game, good for the 11th-most points allowed in the NBA.

However, Philadelphia is particularly limiting to point guards, so I don't foresee this being a smooth matchup for Irving. The Sixers allow the third-fewest points and the seventh-fewest three-point makes to point guards. Based on this -- and the fact that Irving is coming off an injury and has noted struggles on the road -- it seems the under is a solid move.

I'd be remiss if I didn't note that Luka Doncic (ankle) is questionable for tonight's game. The market is currently operating under the assumption that Doncic will play. I think the under is the way to go, but it is best to wait for confirmation on Doncic's status before targeting this Irving prop.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.