3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 12/18/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Nikola Jokic Top Points Scorer in Mavericks-Nuggets Game (+260)

You'll be hard-pressed to find a valid context in which we can get Nikola Jokic to come out as a game's top points scorer at such high odds, but the Denver Nuggets will go up against Luka Doncic and the Kyrie Irving-less Dallas Mavericks tonight.

Doncic has -260 odds to lead this game in the points column, and it's not difficult to see why he is favored. In his last four games with Irving (heel) out, he has taken on an astronomical load of scoring duties, averaging 36.8 points in that span. If my life depended on it, I would perhaps lean toward Doncic coming out on top over Jokic, but not to the tune of a 72.22% implied probability -- there are too many cases to make for the Joker.

To start, Jokic averages six more points at home (30.3) than on the road (24.3) this season. In four games where Jokic had at least one day of rest in between games and the Nuggets were in the midst of a home stint, he is averaging 31.5 points. Doncic, meanwhile, is averaging 31.2 points per game on the road and just 28.4 points in road games that were consecutive.

Jokic is in for a much easier matchup than Doncic, too. The Mavs give up the second-most points per game to centers, while the Nuggets give up the 11th-fewest points per game to point guards.

The Mavs have a weak paint defense, giving up the fifth-most points per game in this area. Jokic is one of the best interior scorers in the league, netting 60.3% of his points in the paint. Dallas' interior defense will only become more vulnerable with starting center Dereck Lively (ankle) out tonight. This means that Jokic could get plenty of looks against Dwight Powell, who ranks 429th out of 482 eligible players in defensive rating.

By December's end of last season, Jokic had already clocked out with four 40-plus point performances -- three of which were home games with rest in between. He's yet to put up a 40 burger this season, but a home game against a team with a weak interior defense that is currently tied with the Nuggets in the Western Conference could constitute just that. I expect a big game from him tonight, but if the Doncic of it all deters you, I'd consider giving Nikola Jokic To Score 35+ Points at +310 a look.

Coby White Over 32.5 Pts + Reb + Ast (-104)

Coby White is averaging 38.4 combined points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) over his last eight games and has cleared this prop in every contest, but the market is still treating it like a fluke.

If we're thinking long-term, then yes, these numbers from White won't realistically stick. But White's new status as a stat-sheet-stuffer correlates with Zach LaVine being out with an injury, and White has taken advantage of playing 40.1 minutes per game.

White will come back down to Earth soon -- he's been making three-pointers at a 51.5% clip over this span -- but I don't expect his minutes to take a hit. Torrey Craig is doubtful for the Chicago Bulls in tonight's game against the Philadelphia 76ers, so depth is an issue for Chicago.

Plus, there's no good reason why the Bulls wouldn't keep their hot-hand 23-year-old guard on the court for extended time. They've gone 5-3 since White started putting up ungodly numbers, with their three close losses coming against respectable teams (Denver Nuggets, Milwaukee Bucks, Miami Heat).

White is averaging 12.75 combined rebounds and assists (RA) over his last eight games. The 76ers allow the 10th-most rebounds and 15th-most assists to point guards, so I would anticipate White to end up in the 10-plus RA range tonight.

Now, Philly is a tough defensive matchup. They come in with the fifth-best defensive rating and allow the seventh-fewest points per game. But while this isn't a match made in heaven for White, he has been averaging 17.25 field-goal attempts (FGA) per game since LaVine has been out, and similar to how his minutes likely won't take a hit, I don't think his shot volume will, either.

If White puts up around 17 FGA tonight, he would probably only need to have an average, by league standards, shooting performance in order to clear this prop.

Paul George To Score 25+ Points (+100)

Let's turn to the alternate markets for Paul George. He'll go up against his former team, the Indiana Pacers, and should be able to take full advantage of Indiana's defensive woes.

The Pacers allow 126.0 points per game (second-most in NBA). A date with Indiana usually results in a laughable game total, and George won't be short on solid opportunities to score.

George scores 11.1 second-chance points per game (most on the Los Angeles Clippers; tied for 11th-most in NBA), and the Pacers allow the second-most second-chance points per game. George can also get work done in the paint, netting 29.7% of his points from this area, and the Pacers allow a league-high amount of paint points.

He has scored 25-plus points in 12 of his 22 full games (24 minutes or more) this season, and a 125.5 implied team total for the Clippers should make things interesting. In five games where Los Angeles has scored 124 points or more, George is averaging 25.4 points per game.

I'm also interested in George's history against his former team. He has played as a visitor in Indiana on five occasions in his career. He has scored at least 36 points in four of these five games, averaging 33.0 points across that span.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.