3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 11/6/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Jrue Holiday Over 13.5 Points (-122)
Derrick White is out for tonight's Boston Celtics game while Kristaps Porzingis is listed as questionable, so this should create ample room for Jrue Holiday to make his mark on the offensive end.
Holiday is averaging 14.0 points per game this season, which is lower than his 19.3 points average from last season -- but it makes sense given how stacked Boston's starting lineup is in terms of scoring threats.
Now that White has been ruled out, we should see Holiday get more looks to score tonight. He netted a season-high 19 points in White's absence on Saturday, all while having a poor shooting performance (40.0% FG%). He averaged a 47.9% FG% last season and has a 50.0% FG% this season, so it's a good sign for this over recommendation that he is capable of clearing this bar even without having good shooting percentage numbers.
Holiday and the Celtics will go up against the Minnesota Timberwolves, who are allowing the fewest points per game in the league.
However, this shouldn't frighten Holiday backers -- despite Minnesota's refusal to let up big numbers to teams as a whole, they aren't as air-tight versus point guards, giving up 22.7 points per night to the positions, which is right around the league average.
Further, the season is still young, so it may be more pertinent to take a look at Minnesota's numbers from last year, especially since the team did not make major roster moves in the offseason. Last year, the T'Wolves gave up the 13th-most points per game overall and the ninth-most points per game to guards.
Holiday is scoring 21.4% of his points on the fast break, and Minnesota is giving up the second-most fast break points per game. The Timberwolves are also allowing guards the eighth-most three-point attempts (3PA) per game -- Holiday's gone 7 for 13 from downtown in his last two games.
On a normal night, I would feel good about backing Holiday to score 14-plus. But since Boston will be without one of their starting guards and the Celtics' bench isn't known for its depth, I feel even better siding with Holiday tonight.
LeBron James Over 7.5 Rebounds (-115)
LeBron James' rebound prop is one of the best value options on the board tonight. He is averaging 9.2 rebounds per game this season and has cleared this prop in six out of seven games, which is as good of a place to start as we can find.
He will be facing a Miami Heat team that is giving up the fifth-most rebounds per 36 minutes and the fourth-most rebounds to forwards per 36 minutes, so it should prove to be an advantageous matchup as far as LeBron's boards are concerned.
Though LeBron's usage in his 21st season may prove to be an issue with props down the line, it shouldn't negatively impact his stats tonight. The Los Angeles Lakers are short-staffed: Gabe Vincent, Rui Hachimura, Jaxson Hayes, and Jarred Vanderbilt all remain out for tonight's game, so I imagine the lack of depth will ensure that LeBron continues to hover around his current average of 35.7 minutes per game.
LeBron leads all Laker starters in Adjusted Rebound Chance Percentage (third in NBA) and ranks fourth among starters in deferred rebounds, so it's clear why he is grabbing eight-plus boards on a consistent basis.
This matchup against a Miami team that gives up quite a bit on the glass and contests the ninth-fewest rebounds in the league should help LeBron maintain his current pace and go over on this prop.
Ben Simmons To Record A Double-Double (+300)
Deep breath -- I'm siding with Ben Simmons to put up double figures in two box-score categories tonight. Simmons has recorded a double-double in two out of five games this season, and I think there's good reason why he could be primed to do so today against the Milwaukee Bucks.
After trading Jrue Holiday, the Bucks have lost their best backcourt defender, which has been rearing its head as of late. Milwaukee has given up the fourth-most points, third-most assists, and third-most rebounds to guards per 36 minutes this season.
Simmons is averaging 7.4 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 7.2 assists. While it's more likely that Simmons' double-double would come at the hands of a points-rebounds combination, it doesn't hurt that he is also capable of grabbing 10-plus assists.
No player in the league scores a higher percentage of their points in the paint (PITP) than Ben Simmons (97.3%). The Bucks give up the 11th-most PITP to starting guards per 36 minutes.
Further, Simmons ranks second among all Brooklyn Nets players in percentage of points scored off the fast break. No team allows more fast break points per 36 minutes to guards than the Bucks do.
Based on this, I like Simmons' chances to score 10-plus points tonight (which you can get at +165 on FanDuel Sportsbook) and feel good knowing that he has grabbed 10 or more boards in all but one game this season.
The Bucks provide one of the best matchups in the league for an opposing guard to fill up the box score, and while the implied probability on this prop sits at 25.0%, I like Simmons chances a lot more than that.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.