3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Monday 11/13/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them to straight up measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using a wealth of statistical data, including numberFire's daily basketball projections, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Jordan Poole Over 15.5 Points (-115)/Under 3.5 Assists (+106)

Jordan Poole is perhaps the lowest of the low points in the Washington Wizards' young season, but that's not stopping him from shooting his shot.

Despite his ugly -13.4 plus/minus ratio (third-worst in NBA) and below-average 41.7% field goal percentage (FG%), Poole is still averaging 16.4 points per game off of 14.7 field goal attempts (FGA).

His sizable role on the Wizards would usually constitute a higher points-per-game average than what we've seen so far. In his past two seasons, he averaged 18.5 and 20.4 points per game. Though I wouldn't be surprised if his rank sticks atop the negative side of the league's plus/minus, I would be surprised if he doesn't see some regression to previous years' points per game numbers -- he simply has too much opportunity.

Since I'm fairly confident regression is incoming, I'd look to target the over on his points prop while it's low.

Tonight he will face the Toronto Raptors, a team that isn't sacrificing a whole lot of points (seventh-fewest in the league). However, the Raptors do have areas where they are more stodgy, particularly when it comes to guards.

Toronto gives up the seventh-most free-throw attempts to guards per 36 minutes. Poole scores 13.5% of his points from the foul line and is a career 87.5% free-throw shooter. The Raptors also rank in the bottom 12 of points allowed in the paint and off turnovers to guards per 36 minutes.

If Poole can take advantage of these opportunities or have a shooting performance that is on track with his shot percentages from years prior, I like his chances to go for 16-plus points tonight.

While we're on Poole, I'd also look to target the under on his assists prop. He's hit this under in five out of nine games this season, so with it at plus-money, I'm already high on it. But I also think this matchup could make it even more difficult for him to succeed in this regard.

The Raptors allow the 12th-fewest field goal makes per game, but they give up the fifth-fewest assists per game, meaning there are quite a few instances where opponents' made shots are unassisted. Further, Toronto gives up the second-fewest assists to guards per 36 minutes, so this seems like a nice spot to target the under.

Julius Randle Over 19.5 Points (-122)

Don't let his average of 17.2 points per game confuse you -- Julius Randle is a 20-plus point performer, and his 24.3 points per night over his last three games proves he is still roughly the same player who averaged 25.1 points last season.

To start this season, Randle couldn't have shot the ball worse. Even with a recent uptick in his percentages (44.6% FG% over the last three games), his season average has only evened out to a 33.6% FG%.

He shot 46.0% from the field last year, and I expect him to continue the trend that has been set in his most recent week of play.

In games where Randle has shot 35.7% or above from the field, he has cleared this prop four out of five times, averaging 21.8 points in the split.

Tonight, he will face a Boston Celtics team that he historically dominates. Last year, he averaged 30.0 points in four games against Boston. He's averaged 20-plus points against the Celtics in each of his last three seasons.

Boston even let him get off a towering 22 shots when these two teams met a few weeks ago, but Randle's 22.7% FG% stopped him short at 14 points. Expect similar shot volume but better results tonight. In my eyes, Randle simply needs to have an average shooting performance for this prop to hit.

Jarrett Allen Over 10.5 Points (-122)

After missing the start of the Cleveland Cavaliers' season with an ankle injury, Jarrett Allen is back and ready to score.

Allen is averaging 12.0 points through four games, hitting the over on this line in every game except his season debut, where he was limited to 21 minutes in his first game back.

Minute restrictions shouldn't pose a major threat, so I'll happily welcome the info that he has hit the over on this prop in all three games where he was on the court for decent time (27.5 minutes per game over this span). Plus, he averaged 14.3 points per game last season and 16.1 the season before, so these numbers are anything but flukey.

He will go up against the Sacramento Kings, a team that allows the 12th-most points in the paint per game. Allen scores 62.5% of his points in the paint (and 80.3% last season), so I'd look for him to have success in this regard.

The other circumstance in which Allen can buff up his stat line is at the free-throw line. No one on the Cavs draws more fouls per 36 minutes (6.7) than Allen does. He takes advantage of this at the foul line, shooting 78.3% and scoring 37.5% of his points from there. Luckily for Allen-backers, the Kings allow the 12th-most free-throw tries per game, so we should see him score from there tonight.

He probably won't reach the 30-plus minutes tonight, but Allen has proven he doesn't need that much time to clear this bar.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.