3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday 3/22/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 NBA Player Prop Bets for Friday 3/22/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy basketball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using FanDuel Research's daily basketball projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NBA Prop Bets

Devin Vassell Under 25.5 Pts + Ast (-122)

The Memphis Grizzlies will visit the San Antonio Spurs tonight. Gross.

Memphis is home to the worst offense in the NBA while San Antonio has the fourth-worst.

This leaves us with a light 216.5 over/under, which should create adverse conditions for Devin Vassell's combined points and assists (PA) prop.

On the season, Vassell is averaging 23.3 PA per game. He's cleared 25.5 PA in just 23 of 63 games.

Since Vassell is hitting under 25.5 PA at a 63.5% rate, I'm happy to get these -122 odds, which imply just a 54.9% probability.

The Spurs, despite their 15-54 record, aren't used to low game totals. They play at the league's third-fastest pace and will now have to go up against a Memphis team that ranks 17th in tempo.

Vassell has played in 11 games that tipped off with a 225.0 over/under or lower. He is averaging just 21.9 PA in this split. Narrow that over/under down to 224.0 points, and Vassell is averaging only 18.7 PA and went under 25.5 PA in five out of seven games.

He's yet to suit up for a game that features as low of a game total as tonight's, but I can't imagine it will be particularly fruitful -- the Grizzlies let up the fifth-fewest points per game to shooting guards.

FanDuel Research's projections have Vassell slated for 24.2 PA in this one.

Stephen Curry Over 32.5 Pts + Reb (-106)

Death, taxes, and Stephen Curry shining in pace-up games.

The Golden State Warriors (11th in pace) will host the Indiana Pacers (2nd in pace) tonight, and the market has the over/under set at 240.0 points (slate-high).

Curry is averaging 31.7 combined points and rebounds (PR) this season. But in 15 games against teams that fare in the top 8 of pace, he is averaging an earth-shattering 37.8 PR.

He's surpassed 32.5 PR in 11 out of 15 games in this split, missing by the hook in two of those games.

Further, Curry is averaging 35.2 PR in 26 games that tipped off with a 235.0 over/under or higher, so I have no doubts that he is at least in a go-off spot.

Whether he capitalizes on this is another thing, but Indiana's sixth-worst defense could help get him there. So could playing at home, as Curry is averaging 1.7 more points when playing in the Bay Area than on the road.

Golden State's most recent game was a blowout victory against the Memphis Grizzlies. Curry played just 24 minutes in this game and took only 9 field goal attempts. He was forced to be quiet on Wednesday, but I don't think he will be tonight.

Tyrese Haliburton Over 29.5 Pts + Ast (-115)

Let's stick with the same game and turn to Indiana's star guard.

Tyrese Haliburton is averaging 31.6 PA and looks primed for an outburst.

Similar to Curry, Haliburton shines when the pace is right.

Once we remove a short stretch of games where Hali faced an injury management-based minutes restriction, his numbers in fast-paced games are encouraging.

In 23 games against teams that rank in the top 15 of pace, he is averaging 33.6 PA. He cleared 29.5 PA in 16 out of 23 games (69.6%) and missed by the hook on three occasions.

Beyond the pace and high game total, it seems Hali matches up well against Golden State's 19th-ranked defense.

The Warriors let up the 13th-most points and assists to guards. They also surrender the sixth-most three-point attempts per game. Further, they cede the ninth-most foul shots per game while Haliburton nets 31.0% of his points from the free-throw line.

In a fast-paced game where Haliburton seems set up to shoot a lot of threes and receive above-average free-throw attempts, I want to back him.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.