3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 7/8/24

Annie Nader
Annie Nader@ANader33
3 MLB Prop Bets to Target on Monday 7/8/24

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Player Props

Jeimer Candelario To Hit A Home Run (+480)

Jeimer Candelario has recorded a hit in five of his last six games but hasn't hit a dinger in over two weeks. He could be due tonight.

The switch-hitter owns a team-leading .266 ISO and a 42.7% fly-ball rate against right-handed pitchers. Candelario has hit 13 of his 14 homers against righties, so I'm eager to attack tonight's matchup against the right-handed Ryan Feltner of the Colorado Rockies.

Feltner has been getting walloped by batters from the left side of the plate. This season, he has surrendered a .213 ISO, .526 SLG, 37.4% fly-ball rate, 39.5% hard-hit rate, and 1.57 home runs per nine innings to left-handed hitters. This is even with sustaining a middle-of-the-road 12.0% HR/FB ratio.

Across the last 30 days of play, Candelario has maintained a 10.4% barrel rate, .256 ISO, and 38.8% fly-ball rate. Add in an astonishingly low 2.2% walk rate in this span (seventh-lowest in MLB) and a residency at third in the batting order, and it's easy to like the outlook of his at-bats tonight.

Although Feltner will be saved from Coors Field in this one, the Great American Ballpark might be an even scarier foe. Cincinnati's stadium is the friendliest home run park in town and even gives a bump to lefties. It's no fad that Candelario has smashed 9 of his 14 home runs at home despite receiving the same amount of at-bats (148) on the road.

I'll bite on these intriguing +480 odds and give some consideration to Candelario To Record An RBI (+110), too.

Max Kepler To Record 2+ Bases (+110)

Chris Flexen will be on the bump for the Chicago White Sox tonight, making for a sensible spot to target batter props with the Minnesota Twins.

Flexen has been horrible against left-handed hitters this season. He suffers a 5.13 xFIP against this handedness, the seventh-worst mark in MLB. More importantly, he surrenders a .306 ISO (highest in MLB), .582 SLG (highest), 51.4% fly-ball rate (fifth-highest), and an unparalleled 2.73 home runs per nine innings (most).

With this in mind, I'll buy into lefty Max Kepler despite a season that has been devoid of power.

Kepler has been generating a 6.2% barrel rate and .085 ISO across the last 30 days of play. Gross.

That's enough to keep me off Kepler's homer prop (+370) but strictly because I do not think we are getting friendly enough odds.

However, Kepler has notched at least two bases in three of his last four games and is in for one of the friendliest matchups in baseball given his handedness. Kepler has also produced a 54.5% hard-hit rate over the last two weeks, so he could have the fixings to achieve this prop via an extra-base hit.

Jon Gray Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+116)

In late May, Jon Gray hit the 15-day IL. He hasn't been the same since.

In six appearances since returning from the IL, Gray has been beaten with a 1.67 WHIP, 5.15 xFIP, and 2.30 home runs per nine innings.

Even more concerning? He's managed a lowly 13.9% K% and 5.8 strikeouts per nine innings in that span, too.

He clearly hasn't had his stuff and has not exceeded 77 pitches since May 15th. While a lower-than-normal pitch count or a blowup against tonight's competition, the Los Angeles Angels, is not certain to be in play, we have every reason to be concerned, and the value on Gray's strikeout under is enticing.

Even before his injury, Gray recorded under 4.5 strikeouts in 50.0% of his starts (5 out of 10 contests). Add in the recent rough patch, and Gray has recorded under 4.5 strikeouts in 66.7% of his starts (10 out of 15). These +116 odds would imply that Gray is hitting this under at just a 46.3% rate.

The Angels are producing a middle-of-the-road 23.0% K% versus righties (13th in MLB) and are an average enough opponent to make me side with another sour outing from Gray.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.