3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Wednesday 10/11/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Prop Bets to Target

Austin Riley To Record 2+ Bases (+110)

The Atlanta Braves came out cold in Game 1 of the NLDS following the extended bye time off but fought back in Game 2 to tie the series with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Aaron Nola is taking the mound for the Phils in Game 3, and though he's off the heels of a great outing in the NL Wild Card, he should see some tough matchups that may get the better of him tonight.

Enter Austin Riley, who has been on a tear against right-handed pitchers.

Since the All-Star break, he's put up a .402 weighted on-base average, .608 slugging percentage, 25.0% HR/FB ratio, 47.5% hard-hit rate, and 153 wRC+.

Riley has a strong history against Nola -- and though batter vs. pitcher stats can be misleading and insignificant, the sample size may be sufficient in this case.

In 54 career at-bats against Nola, he has knocked in 21 hits, including 5 home runs and 5 doubles. This leaves Riley with a career .389 batting average and .759 slugging percentage opposite Nola.

Though more weight should be placed in Riley's performance against righties as of late, and the fact that he hit for 333 total bases in the regular season (fifth in MLB), it doesn't hurt to know that he is historically dominant against Nola.

The +110 odds on this prop are fairly gracious. Despite placing fifth in total bases and having an advantageous matchup on deck, Riley holds the ninth-shortest odds for players in this game to record two-plus bases. I think he is the move for tonight.

Alex Bregman To Hit a Home Run (+600)

After giving up four home runs last night and losing in a blowout to the Houston Astros, the Minnesota Twins will look to save their season tonight with a Game 4 win.

Joe Ryan is on the bump for Minnesota, which means things could be dicey. Ryan is an excellent punchout pitcher -- he held a soaring 30.2% strikeout percentage in the second half of the season -- but he also ended this stretch with a 6.09 ERA.

In Ryan's two starts against Houston this year, he pitched for 10 innings, striking out 16 batters and allowing 9 runs. I think the latter stat could rear its head in what will be Ryan's first outing in nearly two weeks.

Alex Bregman has great power numbers against righties, including a .370 weighted on-base average (wOBA), .468 slugging percentage, 43.8% fly-ball rate, and 138 wRC+

These numbers have strengthened in the second half of the season, with Bregman boasting a .408 wOBA, .528 slugging percentage, and 165 wRC+.

He should see a decent spot to go yard tonight, especially given the power Joe Ryan gives up to right-handed batters.

Ryan's stat line against righties includes a .348 wOBA, .530 slugging percentage, 53.4% fly-ball rate, 19.3% HR/FB ratio, and a towering 2.44 home runs per nine innings.

These numbers took an even bigger hit in the second half of the season. Ryan grappled with a .406 wOBA, .633 slugging percentage, 54.9% fly-ball rate, 22.2% HR/FB ratio, and 2.90 home runs per nine innings against right-handed batters.

Given the major matchup advantage and Ryan's tendency to sacrifice the long ball, I think Bregman is in a nice spot to follow up on his four-bagger from last night.

With +600 odds, the implied probability on this prop is 14.29% -- but numberFire's projections stamp Bregman with a 24.0% implied probability to go yard.

Lance Lynn Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-120)

If you're the Los Angeles Dodgers and the season is on the line, Lance Lynn may not be the guy you want on the mound.

The fact that his second-half 5.36 ERA is better than his first-half numbers speaks volumes.

Despite Lynn's struggles, he seems to have mastered the art of giving up run after run while also striking out batters at a high rate -- it's what he is best at.

He ended the regular season averaging 9.36 strikeouts per nine innings (20th) and maintained a 23.6% strikeout rate (26th) -- he leads all Dodger pitchers in this regard.

Lynn has struck out four-plus batters in 27 out of his 32 starts this season, meaning he historically clears this prop.

He has faced the projected Arizona Diamondbacks lineup in 50 at-bats, allowing a .200 batting average and striking out 18 batters (36.0% strikeout rate). Though this sample is too small to hold great value, it is encouraging that a D-Backs hitter has yet to eviscerate Lynn in the way that many others have.

numberFire's projections forecast Lynn to strike out 5.8 batters tonight.

Given that this is a win-or-go-home game for the Dodgers and Lynn may get yanked somewhat early, I wouldn't necessarily rely on him to get in the six-plus K range -- but I think he is more than capable of punching out four Arizona batters.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.