3 MLB Player Prop Bets to Target on Tuesday 10/10/23

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Utilizing numberFire's projections as a guide, here are some MLB player props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and numberFire's projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

MLB Prop Bets to Target

Leody Taveras To Record 2+ Bases (+175)

The Texas Rangers will look to book an early ticket to the ALCS with a win against the Baltimore Orioles tonight.

Dean Kremer is on the bump for Baltimore, and Texas has a few batters who could exploit his weak spots.

Kremer's numbers against lefties are not ideal -- he allows a .349 wOBA, .467 slugging percentage, and 1.81 home runs per nine innings.

Corey Seager is one of the best left-handed hitters in baseball and destroys the ball against righties -- his splits against this handedness include a .333 batting average, .667 slugging percentage, and 183 wRC+ -- but this dominance could work against him.

He drew a towering five walks in Game 2 and has been so red-hot that he could be a potential candidate for intentional walking, making his -140 odds to record two-plus bases a tad risky if he can't even see sufficient at-bats. Even still, he should find himself on the base paths tonight, so I'd target Corey Seager To Record a Run (-140) in what is projected to be a run-heavy game.

In lieu of Seager, I'm looking to target a lower-risk, higher-reward hitting option. Leody Taveras is the Ranger lefty qualified to get this job done.

Taveras comes into the night with the advantage of his lefty status opposite Kremer, but he also has decent splits against right-handed pitchers, including a .275 batting average, .329 wOBA, .449 slugging percentage, and 106 wRC+.

This statline has magnified in his last 50 at-bats against righties as he's boasting a .347 batting average, .401 weighted on base average, .510 slugging percentage, and 156 wRC+ in the split in that span.

He's on a roll against right-handed pitchers, and the +175 odds on this prop undervalues Taveras' ability to follow up on this trend.

Sonny Gray Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+124)

The Minnesota Twins will play the biggest game in Target Field history tonight, and all signs point to a vintage Sonny Gray performance.

Gray will go up against an intimidating Houston Astros lineup, but his numbers show that he is more than capable of serving as the domineering force in Game 3.

The Astros are sixth in the league in slugging percentage and have a lethal power hitting duo in Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez, but Gray is exceedingly unfamiliar with sacrificing the four-bagger -- he gives up a league-low 0.39 home runs per nine innings (lowest in MLB since 2021).

On the season, Gray held a 2.79 ERA (third) -- this stellar stat line was amplified to a 2.67 ERA in the second half of the season and saw further post-All-Star break improvements in Minnesota, with a 2.21 ERA at home in the second half.

The Astros' bats should have a tough time accessing the base paths, meaning Gray could be in for a lengthy performance.

His case at having a long pitch-count leash tonight doesn't stop there -- this will be Gray's only start in the ALDS, so I can't imagine Twins manager Rocco Baldelli plans on cutting the Gray cord early. Plus, with Game 4 of this series scheduled for 2:07 p.m. EST tomorrow, Minnesota is in for a quick turnaround and will need to rest all the relief arms they can.

Gray has hit the over on this prop line in 10 out of his last 13 starts.

We can reasonably infer that the Twins will look for him to throw 85-plus pitches, meaning more good things for the over -- Gray has thrown 85-plus pitches in 20 starts this season, and he hit the over for this prop in 17 of those 20 starts.

In 13 innings pitched against Houston this season, Gray struck out 16 batters -- he doesn't have to move mountains to punch out five batters tonight.

Cristian Javier Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-132)

Gray isn't the only pitcher in this game who can clear their strikeout line. Cristian Javier is taking the mound for the Astros, and I think he is set up nicely to deliver an outing of five-plus Ks.

The Twins ended the season with an MLB-high 26.6% strikeout rate. Despite the team's early playoff success, their strikeout propensity is still there. An opposing starting pitcher has struck out five-plus Minnesota batters in all four postseason games thus far.

Javier holds a 23.1% strikeout rate (28th) -- his strikeout rate increases to a whopping 28.6% against right-handed batters.

Minnesota is, of course, well-aware of Javier's succes against righty bats, so they will look to get some extra lefties in the lineup tonight. Left-handed batters such as Max Kepler and Edouard Julien can do some damage against Javier, but the best bats in the Minnesota lineup -- Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis -- are both righties.

Javier has been absolute nails in his playoff career. He's pitched 32.2 postseason innings for Houston in the last three seasons, delivering a 2.20 ERA and punching out 48 batters.

He also ended the year on a high note, striking out five-plus batters in five of his last six starts, and I like his chances to continue this streak against a strikeout-prone Minnesota lineup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.