MLB

3 MLB Best Bets for Wednesday 6/5/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
3 MLB Best Bets for Wednesday 6/5/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Detroit Tigers at Texas Rangers, 8:05 p.m. ET

Over 8.5 Runs (-122)

The Detroit Tigers (31-30) will go for the four-game sweep in Arlington on Wednesday. They are set to take on the Texas Rangers (29-32) at Globe Life Park. Still, I think the wisest betting angle here is on over 8.5 runs (-122 odds).

On the mound, we'll see starters Kenta Maeda and Jose Urena. Neither arm has been particularly dominant in 2024; Maeda owns a 5.84 FIP with Detroit while Urena has a 4.37 SIERA.

Offensively, these ball clubs are middle of the pack. Texas carries a .692 team OPS, whereas the Tigers are at .682. From there, the Rangers have produced 4.36 runs per game. When added to Detroit's scoring clip of 4.25 runs per game, the law of averages pushes us over 8.5.

numberFire is also offering support for over 8.5 runs at MLB's newest venue (which is tagged with a 102 Park Factor score). Per numberFire's model, over bettors have a 65.86% winning likelihood in this contest.

Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs, 8:05 p.m. ET

Cubs -1.5 (+100)

As a staple of any summer in the Midway, the Crosstown Classic is here this week. On Wednesday, the Chicago White Sox (15-46) are on the Northside for Game 2 at the rival Chicago Cubs (30-31).

Notably, the White Sox have been one of MLB's worst sides in 2024. Entering this matchup, no team has won fewer games than the Southsiders. Additionally, the ChiSox are -- by far -- the lowest-scoring club in baseball at just 2.92 runs per game. All this is to say that I am targeting Cubs -1.5 for an even-money (+100 odds) payout tonight.

The Cubbies have displayed mixed results on the diamond this season, but much of that can be attributed to several stars landing on the IL. Presently, CHC has a healthy lineup. Behind sluggers Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki and Michael Busch, I believe the Cubs will defeat the Sox for the second straight night.

The projected starters at Wrigley Field are Jameson Taillon (2.38 ERA) for the Cubs and Erick Fedde (3.12 ERA) for the Sox. Both hurlers have been good in 2024, but Fedde has allowed four or more earned runs in two of his past three starts.

CHW is riding a dozen-game losing streak right now. From there, they have been the least profitable team against the run line, showing a 25-36 ATS record and -2.3 MOV. Simply, if there is a team to bully right now, it is the White Sox.

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET

F5 Result: Mariners (-114)

For an AL West affair, let's look to the Seattle Mariners (34-27) at Oakland Athletics (24-38).

Presently, these familiar foes are on opposite ends of the divisional standings. Seattle -- a team that has not won an AL West title since 2001 -- is in first place entering Wednesday while the A's are lounging in the cellar.

The M's are better than Oakland in most offensive and defensive metrics. Right now, numberFire's MLB power rankings have the Mariners (0.96 nERD) slotted fifth in MLB. For the Athletics (-0.36 nERD), they show up 24th overall.

Rather than playing Seattle's full-game moneyline at -162 odds, I find better value on the Mariners within FanDuel Sportsbook's first-five innings market. The three-way market (F5 Result) lists the M's with longer -114 odds to be ahead by the time the sixth frame commences in Oakland.

The starting pitching matchup at the Coliseum features Joey Estes and Logan Gilbert. In this campaign, Gilbert (3.62 SIERA) has been far superior. Estes owns a 4.39 xFIP this year, and his 45.3% career Statcast hard-contact rate certainly does not help his cause.

For those wondering, Seattle did well to cash this market on Tuesday, leading the A's 4-1 after five completed innings.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.