3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday 6/4/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday 6/4/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins, 6:40 p.m. ET

Under 7.5 Runs (-118)

In South Florida, Tuesday will commence MLB's "Citrus Series." The Tampa Bay Rays (29-31) and Miami Marlins (21-39) are scheduled for a two-bid set at loneDepot Park. With that, I am not expecting much scoring between these sides.

The projected starters for the opener are Ryan Pepiot and lefty Jesus Luzardo. The southpaw is currently tagged with a 3.82 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) while keeping loud contact down (29.6 hard%). Across the way, Pepiot has been quite efficient, owning a 3.50 FIP while allowing only 0.97 HR/9.

Given the respective arms in this matchup, I am targeting under 7.5 runs (-118 odds) in Miami. Additionally, it is not as if we are challenging two mashing offenses here. Entering Tuesday, the Marlins have a .641 team OPS, which is the lowest clip on the Senior Circuit. Tampa's figure in that metric is not much better, showing .664.

If you caught today's NRFI Bets to Target by my colleague Kenyatta Storin, you'll know he is also eyeing this Rays-Marlins contest as one wherein runs could be hard to come by. Overall, Tampa Bay has scored just 3.9 runs per game while the Fish are currently at 3.65 runs per game.

Atlanta Braves at Boston Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET

Over 8.0 Runs (-118)

In the opposite vein as the contest above, I expect there to be a fair amount of run production tonight at Fenway Park. Beginning Tuesday, the Atlanta Braves (33-24) and Boston Red Sox (30-30) will commence a two-game series at MLB's oldest active venue.

The probable pitchers here are Kutter Crawford and southpaw Max Fried. Crawford has spent the past three seasons between the Majors and Triple-A, but he's posted a solid 3.99 SIERA in 2024. Fried owns a 3.29 xFIP to this point, but Boston has a .327 OBP versus lefties -- let's see how that plays out.

With two booming offenses, I like over 8.0 runs (-118 odds) in Boston. Before diving into the lineups, we know that Fenway is well regarded as a hitter's venue; the Red Sox's digs has earned the second-highest Park Factor score (107) over the past three seasons.

Notably, the Braves arrive in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts with a .725 team OPS (7th) while scoring 4.51 runs per game. For the BoSox, they are yielding a .715 OPS (10th). Even without Ronald Acuna Jr. (ACL), this contest still features plenty of sluggers in Matt Olson, Rafael Devers, Marcell Ozuna and Jarren Duran, so we could see runs in bunches.

The projections at numberFire offer confident support for over 8.0 runs on Tuesday, displaying a 5.01-4.65 score in favor of Atlanta. Incidentally, that model translates to a 59.82% winning likelihood for over bettors.

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET

Mariners -1.5 (+104)

As an Alameda County native, it's a bit sad to know that MLB's days in the East Bay are officially numbered. Still, that is the immediate case for the Oakland Athletics (24-37) as they host the Seattle Mariners (34-27) this week.

This series will be the Mariners' second-to-last trip to Oakland. For Tuesday, they'll hand the baseball to George Kirby while the A's start Mitch Spence on the hill. Kirby has been quality for Seattle in 2024, posting a 3.32 SIERA. For Spence, he's thrown only 38.1 innings this season, but his 1.15 WHIP is still impressive.

With two solid hurlers going, I like Seattle on the run line (+104 odds) at the Oakland Coliseum. numberFire's power rankings have these AL West foes placed far apart; the Mariners (0.99 nERD) are slotted fifth in the Majors while the Athletics (-0.36 nERD) show up 23rd overall.

In three games against Oakland this year, the M's have twice covered -1.5 runs. numberFire has the Mariners doing so again tonight as their MLB game projections give Seattle a 52.82% winning likelihood in this market.

Over the past 20 contests, the A's are 5-15 straight up. With that, I am eager to challenge them against the AL West's leader.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.