MLB

3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday 6/25/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday 6/25/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

New York Yankees at New York Mets, 7:10 p.m. ET

Mets Moneyline (+122)

A beloved New York City-summer tradition, the first Subway Series of the season starts on Monday evening. The New York Yankees (52-28) will head to Queens for two games against the neighboring New York Mets (37-39).

The projected starters at Citi Field are Gerrit Cole and lefty David Peterson. For Cole, this will be his second start of 2024 after dealing with elbow issues. Meanwhile, Peterson (3.97 ERA) has pitched to contact very well, yielding an efficient 53.9% ground-ball rate.

Transparently, the Yanks have not been as dominant when facing southpaw pitching; NYY has compiled a .699 OPS versus lefties while roping righties for a .782 OPS. Knowing that, I believe there is value on the Metropolitans to win outright (+122 moneyline).

It will take some time before Cole is back at Cy Young form. He'll be on a pitch count of approximately 75 pitches tonight as he threw 62 pitches in his four-inning campaign debut last week.

The Bronx Bombers have been a force in 2024, but they've dropped 7 of their past 10 games. Across the way, the Mets have gone 8-2 in that span. On Tuesday, who takes the larger bite out of the Big Apple?

The Mets' moneyline listing at FanDuel comes with a 45% implied probability. Still, numberFire is giving NYM a 50.5% chance at victory tonight in Flushing Meadows; the reward seems worth the risk.

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 p.m. ET

Dodgers -1.5 (-137)

At Guaranteed Rate Field, the Los Angeles Dodgers (49-31) and Chicago White Sox (21-59) are set for Game 2 of an interleague tilt. L.A. was victorious by a score of 3-0 last night -- can we expect more of the same on Tuesday?

The probable pitchers on the South Side are Chris Flexen and Bobby Miller. If you read Kenyatta Storin's "NRFI Bets to Target" for today, you know that the looming warm conditions in Chicago could spell trouble for Flexen, who owns a 4.88 xFIP and 34.5% ground-ball rate in 2024.

Miller (3.47 xFIP) has been so-so for the Dodgers this season, but he is going up against a ChiSox team that has only produced 3.04 runs per game to this point. Conversely, Los Angeles' lineup has cranked out 5.01 runs per game. For a different perspective, these clubs have both played 80 contests entering Tuesday, and the "Boys in Blue" have crossed the plate 158 more times.

I like the Dodgers on the run line (-137 odds) tonight. They are 41-39 ATS this year and have produced a 1.4 MOV (T-2nd). On numberFire's MLB power rankings, the Dodgers (2.21 nERD) are 28 spots above the White Sox (-1.65 nERD). Simply, that's enough for me to bank on LAD winning by multiple runs.

Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks, 9:40 p.m. ET

Over 7.5 Runs (-122)

Continuing the interleague theme, the Minnesota Twins (43-35) are out in Phoenix to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks (38-40) -- both sides here are returning from a day of rest.

Tuesday's scheduled starting pitchers at Chase Field -- carrying a 105 park factor score in 2024 -- are righties Brandon Pfaadt and Joe Ryan. Pfaadt has been solid for Arizona behind a 3.81 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) while Ryan has posted a 3.59 FIP. Still, I see over 7.5 runs (-122 odds) as the best move here.

The D-backs are within MLB's top-10 scoring sides this year at 4.72 runs per game. In the other dugout, Minnesota's lineup has been mashing as of late. Over the past six games, the Twins are boasting an .847 team OPS, scoring 5.5 runs per game.

Back at numberFire, the MLB game projections are in vehement support of over 7.5 runs in downtown Phoenix. Their model estimates 10.07 total runs for Twins-Diamondbacks, which translates to a 70.62% winning likelihood for over bettors.

For a last bit of comfort here, Chase Field sits at an elevation of 1,100 feet -- second-highest in MLB. With that in mind, let's root for barrels early and often.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.