MLB

3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday 6/11/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
3 MLB Best Bets for Tuesday 6/11/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Oakland Athletics at San Diego Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET

Padres -1.5 (+132)

For an interleague affair between fellow ball clubs from California, the Oakland Athletics (26-42) are down south to tangle with the San Diego Padres (35-35). Given how these sides have trended as of late, I like the Friars to cover the run line (+132 odds) tonight.

The projected starters at Petco Park on Tuesday are Randy Vasquez and lefty JP Sears. Vasquez is making just his eighth career start since moving over to the National League, owning a 4.44 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) through that span. For the southpaw Sears, he's posted a 4.74 xFIP in 2024.

With the absence of a dominant starting pitcher in this bid, I am willing to lean on the Padres' explosive lineup. Led by sluggers Fernando Tatis Jr. (13 HR/.829 OPS), Jurickson Profar (.322 BA) and Jake Cronenworth (45 RBI), I see San Diego winning by two or more runs.

The Friars' offense has been on fire over the past week. Over their most recent seven games, S.D. has compiled a booming .843 team OPS. In that same split, the Padres have plated 5.57 runs per game.

In the other dugout, the A's have struggled at the plate. Since June 1st, Oakland has scored more than two runs in a game only twice. From there, the Padres (1.08 nERD) are 20 spots higher than the Athletics (-0.49 nERD) on numberFire's MLB power rankings.

Simply, that is enough separation for me to feel confident in San Diego -1.5 (36-34 ATS) at advantageous odds.

Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET

Over 7.0 Runs (-105)

In the Emerald City, the Chicago White Sox (17-50) and Seattle Mariners (38-30) are set for Game 2 of their current series. Yesterday, Seattle catcher Cal Raleigh crushed a ninth-inning grand slam to provide a thrilling walk-off victory at T-Mobile Park.

For Tuesday, the probable pitchers are two righties from Cal Poly San Luis Obispo: Drew Thorpe and Bryan Woo. Notably, Thorpe will be making his MLB debut. Conversely, Woo has made improvements from last year, holding a 3.67 SIERA right now.

In the sports betting industry, there are times in which you must let the numbers dictate your decisions. Transparently, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering -105 odds on over 7.0 runs in Seattle, and that line feels too good to pass up with unproven hurlers on the mound.

Seven runs is the lowest total on Tuesday's MLB slate. Additionally, -105 is a better-than-standard payout. With that, I'll be rooting for rampant scoring between the M's and ChiSox.

The game projections at numberFire offer support for the over on Tuesday. Per their model, the Mariners are expected to win by a score of 5.10-3.13, resulting in a 55.47% conversion likelihood for over bettors.

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET

Under 9.0 Runs (-115)

Highlighting another interleague clash, the Texas Rangers (31-34) are in Hollywood this week to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers (41-26). At one point, this would have been viewed as a potential World Series preview, but the defending-champion Rangers have wavered in recent weeks.

Texas' offense has been very "Jekyll and Hyde" of late. Over the Rangers' past nine games, they've scored two or fewer runs on five occasions; the remaining four contests saw the reigning champs score seven (twice), six, and nine runs.

With a quality pitching matchup and less-than-favorable hitting conditions on hand, I am targeting under nine runs (-115 odds) at Dodger Stadium. Sure, Chavez Ravine can be a lively place to hit during the day, but the building does not play with the same carry at night. Additionally, Los Angeles' weather has been chilly and gray; expect temperatures in the mid to low 60s for this game.

I understand and respect that the Dodgers have the sort of lineup that can eclipse a game's set total in a single inning. Still, I am willing to trust in hurlers Dane Dunning (1.18 WHIP) and lefty James Paxton (4.19 ERA). From there, it does not hurt our chances that Los Angeles' bullpen has posted the lowest ERA (3.03) on the Senior Circuit.

Nine runs is tied for the second-largest combined total on Tuesday's MLB board. With a higher bar in this bid, I am looking to limbo under. Since Texas' lineup has been worse against left-handed pitching compared to righties, I am confident in this wager.

Back at numberFire, the MLB game projections are also leaning toward under nine runs. Currently, numberFire's model yields a 48.4% winning likelihood for under bettors. Of course, there is no hook on this line, leaving us with a 10.74% chance at a push, but I'll take that risk.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.