3 MLB Best Bets for Thursday 6/6/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
3 MLB Best Bets for Thursday 6/6/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, 6:45 p.m. ET

Braves -1.5 (+112)

For a piece of NL East action, the Atlanta Braves (34-25) will head to the nation's capital to take on the Washington Nationals (27-34). As it is now, these sides are positioned second and third within the division.

Despite what the standings say, I still have Atlanta as the much better ball club in 2024. numberFire agrees, listing the Braves (0.47 nERD) 11th on their power rankings while the Nats (-0.63 nERD) chime in at 27th. With that, I am targeting Atlanta's run line at +112 odds.

The projected starters at Nationals Park are Reynaldo Lopez and lefty Mitchell Parker. In the absence of ace Spencer Strider, Lopez has been solid for Atlanta behind a 3.86 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Across the way, Parker has shined with a 1.14 WHIP. Still, the Braves have done well versus southpaw pitching.

In 2024, Atlanta has produced a .748 team OPS against left-handed pitching. Particularly, slugger Marcell Ozuna has obliterated southpaws this season, holding a 1.018 OPS and .346 batting average in the split.

Back at numberFire, the MLB game projections offer support for Atlanta -1.5. Their model gives the Braves a 55.97% chance to win by at least two this evening. That is noticeably up from a 47.2% implied probability (at these +112 odds).

Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox, 8:10 p.m. ET

Over 8.5 (-118)

Thursday night will bring together a pair of socks. At Guaranteed Rate Field, the Boston Red Sox (31-31) are visiting the Chicago White Sox (15-47) for a meeting of historic American League franchises.

The ChiSox are coming off being swept in the Crosstown Classic while the BoSox split two games with the aforementioned Braves. Still, given Chicago's recent offensive uptick, I like over 8.5 runs (-118 odds) on the Southside.

On the bump, we'll see a matchup between Tanner Houck (3.03 SIERA) and Jake Woodford (4.64 SIERA). Houck has excelled in 2024 whereas Woodford has produced mixed results. Still, they'll both take on warm and wind-blowing-out conditions in Chicago tonight, which creates an environment favorable to hitters.

The White Sox are currently riding a losing streak of 13 games. Ironically, they've been scoring with more frequency lately compared to their usual output. Since last Friday, Chicago has notched 4.6 runs per game. In that same span, Boston has scored 5.8 runs per game.

Notably, Chicago's bullpen has been quite poor this season. Presently, the unit owns a 4.67 ERA, which is the third-worst mark in the American League. From there, White Sox relievers have issued more walks than any ball club, allowing 2.0 free passes per game.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET

Padres Moneyline (-120)

Out at Petco Park, the Arizona Diamondbacks (29-33) and San Diego Padres (32-33) will commence a four-game divisional series on Thursday. What should we expect when it comes to this NL West romp?

The probable pitchers in San Diego's Gaslamp Quarter will be righties Slade Cecconi and Randy Vasquez. Cecconi has labored for the D-backs this season, sporting a 5.71 FIP. Vasquez has not been much better, showing a 4.90 FIP.

In this divisional meeting, I like the Padres to win outright (-120 moneyline). Head-to-head, San Diego has already defeated Arizona in two of three games in 2024. Even more staggering: the Friars averaged 8.0 runs per game over three contests -- one of which where Cecconi allowed six earned -- in downtown Phoenix.

Reflecting back on numberFire's MLB game projections, the model has San Diego winning by an estimated score of 4.30-3.92. Ultimately, that presents a 56.43% winning likelihood. At ESPN Analytics, the Padres are yielding a 56.5% chance to win on Thursday. Both of those are up a bit from the 54.55% implied odds at -120.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.