MLB

3 MLB Best Bets for Thursday 6/13/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
3 MLB Best Bets for Thursday 6/13/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Philadelphia Phillies at Boston Red Sox, 7:10 p.m. ET

Phillies Moneyline (-112)

The Philadelphia Phillies (46-21) are closing out their series with the Boston Red Sox (34-34) this evening. With these sides splitting results thus far, Thursday's meeting will serve as a rubber match.

Historic Fenway Park is the venue tonight while hurlers Aaron Nola and Tanner Houck are expected to start on the mound. Genuinely, this will be a heavyweight pitching duel.

Nola has shined for Philly behind a 3.70 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) while doing well to avoid hard contact. Across the way, Houck has been laser sharp, boasting a 2.81 xFIP for the BoSox -- so what gives?

In this battle of Cy Young candidates, I believe Philadelphia's lineup will make the winning difference. Presently, the Phillies are tagged with the second-highest OPS (.742) on the Senior Circuit. Given their many powerful left-handed bats (Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott and Kyle Schwarber), Philly can give Houck a formidable challenge.

numberFire currently lists the Phillies (1.61 nERD) four positions ahead of the Red Sox (0.91 nERD) on their baseball power rankings board. From there, FanDuel Sportsbook gives Philadelphia short -112 odds to win outright.

In an intimate ballpark, I am going with the explosive road team.

Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins, 7:40 p.m. ET

Twins -1.5 (-120)

The Oakland Athletics (26-44) are in Minneapolis to take on the Minnesota Twins (36-32) this evening. Seemingly, Oakland's nightmarish "farewell" season continues, as the team has lost five consecutive games (and 8 of their past 10 contests).

For Thursday's projected starters, we'll see fellow righties Joe Ryan and Luis Medina. Ryan has been one of Minnesota's best arms behind a 3.12 SIERA. Meanwhile, Medina is making just his third start of 2024. Still, he's committed 6.1 BB/9 thus far.

In regards to this bid at Target Field, I am confident the Twins can cover the run line. As noted, the A's are struggling in a major way right now; they've not scored more than four runs in a single contest since June 1st. Conversely, Minnesota has plated 4.91 runs per game this month.

The Twins' recent offensive uptick can be contributed to the bats of Carlos Santana -- cue up "Oye Como Va" for good vibes -- and Ryan Jeffers. Santana has compiled a .978 OPS with 10 RBI in June so far. Jeffers -- who enjoyed a night off on Wednesday -- is perpetuating scoring with a .351 wOBA.

Back at numberFire, the MLB game projections are also in support of Twins -1.5. Per their model, Minnesota is estimated to win by a score of 5.61-3.66, which translates to a 55.69% winning likelihood in this market.

With the Twins at home in the North Loop, I like them to defeat the Athletics by two or more runs.

Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners, 9:40 p.m. ET

Over 6.5 (+100)

Looking to avoid a four-game sweep at the hands of the Seattle Mariners (40-30), the Chicago White Sox (17-52) are down bad. Still, I think we can find betting value in this meeting at T-Mobile Park.

Off the bat, White Sox-Mariners sticks out for having the lowest MLB total of Thursday's slate: 6.5 runs. To make this line sweeter, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering even-money odds (+100) on the over!

There are two good starting pitchers in this bid, but still, wagering on seven or more combined runs feels worth the challenge. On the bump, expect to see Luis Castillo and Garrett Crochet. Castillo has displayed mixed results for Seattle in 2024, yielding a 3.73 FIP. Across the way, Crochet has dazzled to a 2.77 FIP.

The Mariners (.667 team OPS) might not be the most free-swinging side in MLB, but they've improved play since June commenced. This month, Seattle has averaged 5.0 runs per game. From there, the Sox have produced 4.09 runs per game over their past 11 contests.

numberFire's baseball projections echo strong support for over 6.5 runs tonight in the Pacific Northwest. Their model is approximating 7.69 combined runs between the M's and ChiSox.

Incidentally, that estimation leaves over bettors with a 62.38% winning likelihood. When compared to the over's 50% implied probability (at these +100 odds), this market presents authentic value.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.