3 MLB Best Bets for Thursday 5/23/24

24d

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds, 1:10 p.m. ET

Over 9.5 Runs (-115)

To wrap up a three-game series, the San Diego Padres and Cincinnati Reds will play day baseball on the banks of the Ohio River.

Notably, the Great American Ball Park is one that perpetuates offense. Over the past three years, GABP has accumulated the fourth-highest Park Factor score (104) in MLB. Additionally, this week day matinée will be played in Cincinnati's warm temperatures.

The projected starters on Thursday are Matt Waldron and Frankie Montas, and frankly, both have struggled this year. Waldron has made strides in his second big-league campaign, but his 4.07 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is nothing to avoid. As for Montas, he's labored poorly since joining the Reds, owning a 5.49 FIP in 2024.

With two offensively aggressive ball clubs like Cincy and San Diego inside a hitter's park, I like over 9.5 runs (-115 odds at FanDuel Sportsbook). The lack of dominant arms in this matchup gives me further confidence toward seeing a double-digit scoring total on Thursday afternoon.

This season, the Friars are producing a top-10 team OPS (.714). Conversely, the Reds have struggled with consistency in the batter's box, but they've also dealt with myriad injuries to key players. As it is now, I think there's enough talent in both lineups to go over this set total.

The game projection model at numberFire is in vehement support of over 9.5, yielding an estimated 5.85-4.71 score (for San Diego). That equates to 10.56 runs. With more than one entire run of cushion on this approximation, I am counting on offense in Cincinnati.

Colorado Rockies at Oakland Athletics, 3:37 p.m. ET

Rockies Moneyline (-102)

For a meeting of under-.500 teams at the Oakland Coliseum, see here. That's right, Thursday will feature a marquee matchup in The Town between the Colorado Rockies and Oakland Athletics.

The probable pitchers are Ryan Feltner and Joey Estes. Feltner is displaying mixed results for Colorado in 2024, but his 4.06 SIERA is respectable. In that same metric, Estes is at 4.68. From there, the Athletics hurler has been blitzed for a 48.1% Statcast hard-hit rate.

As tumultuous as things have been for the A's behind the scenes, their on-field production has actually been a bright spot. No, Oakland -- in the final season in which you can call them that -- does not have any prevalent team strengths presently, but they actually aren't in last place of the AL West right now; that designation currently belongs to the Los Angeles Angels.

The Rox are also reeling in 2024. Yet again, Colorado resides in the NL West's cellar. Ironically enough, we just saw the Rockies win seven consecutive games before that run came to a screeching halt in the Bay Area. Still, I think they can get by Oakland on Thursday afternoon.

Compared to the A's, the Rockies have produced a slightly better OPS (.686) and wOBA (.304). Additionally, Colorado has churned out 3.96 runs per game while Oakland is at 3.70 runs per game. Knowing that the Athletics have lost a dozen of their past 15 games, I like the Rox (-102 odds) to roll Thursday in the East Bay.

Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox, 7:40 ET p.m. ET

Orioles -1.5 (-156)

As one of only two night games on Thursday's slate, the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago White Sox will meet up for a romp on the Southside. For this clash of original American League franchises, I like Baltimore to win by two or more runs on the road.

On the mound, righties Grayson Rodriguez and Mike Clevinger are expected to start. Rodriguez is having an efficient campaign for the O's, boasting a 4-1 record along with a 3.73 SIERA. In opposite fashion, Clevinger has been roped through 11.1 innings pitched this season. Right now, the Sox starter has a 5.26 FIP while walking 4.76 batters per 9 frames.

The Orioles have been one of MLB's top cover teams in 2024. To this point, they hold a 52.2% (27-24) success rate in run-line wagers, which is 11th of 30 clubs. Also, Baltimore has yielded the sixth-best margin of victory (+1.2) in the majors.

Back at numberFire, the MLB game projections are approximating a score of 5.47-3.81 for Baltimore. Per their model, this run-line bet carries a 66.6% winning likelihood. With Baltimore going against a dead-last ChiSox team, I love the O's to win by two or more runs on Thursday evening.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $150 in Bonus Bets if you win your first bet of at least $5! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.