MLB

3 MLB Best Bets for Friday 6/7/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
3 MLB Best Bets for Friday 6/7/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Boston Red Sox and Chicago White Sox, 8:10 p.m. ET

Over 8.0 Runs (-104)

For the second straight evening, the Boston Red Sox (32-31) and Chicago White Sox (15-48) will get together on the Southside. And, for the second straight evening, I am targeting the over in what should be a gusty game at Guaranteed Rate Field.

Friday night's total at FanDuel Sportsbook for this bid is set at an even eight runs, listing the over with -104 odds. The probable pitchers here will be Cooper Criswell and lefty Garrett Crochet. Crochet (2.88 FIP) has performed better for the ChiSox in 2024 than Criswell (40.6% Statcast hard-contact rate) has for the BoSox.

Crochet has the edge in this pitching matchup, but Boston has been notably solid versus left-handed hurlers, carrying a .713 team OPS in the split. Also, the MLB franchise from Massachusetts has scored 23 runs over the past two days (including 14 runs in Chicago last night).

Sure, the White Sox are presently one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. Still, with favorable hitting conditions in the Midway on Friday, I think there is enough between these original American League organizations to produce eight or more total runs.

numberFire is also offering support for over eight runs. Their game projections have Boston victorious tonight by an expected score of 4.97-4.18. Incidentally, numberFire's model gives over bettors a 63.4% winning likelihood.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres, 9:40 p.m. ET

Padres Moneyline (-120)

For two teams battling it out in the thick of the NL West, the Arizona Diamondbacks (30-33) are in "America's Finest City" to take on the San Diego Padres (32-34).

If you caught last night's affair between these divisional rivals, you witnessed the D-backs outlast the Friars after a highly questionable called third-strike ended San Diego's ninth-inning attack. Be that as it may, I like the Padres to bounce back on Friday. With a moneyline listing of -120 odds, I am on the home side here.

The projected starters at Petco Park are righties Michael King and Brandon Pfaadt. King has been strong in 2024 behind a 3.89 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). Additionally, he dominated Arizona back on May 4th, tossing six scoreless frames. For Pfaadt, he is also producing respectable results, owning a 3.59 xFIP.

Pfaadt was King's opposing pitcher in that early May meeting; San Diego blitzed Pfaadt for five runs on 10 hits that day. Simply, this is a matchup I like for the Friars.

The MLB game projections at numberFire are big on the Padres tonight, leaving San Diego with 62.83% winning likelihood. Over at ESPN Analytics, the Padres carry a 64.1% chance to win. Regardless, both figures are up from San Diego's 54.5% implied probability at these -120 odds.

Toronto Blue Jays at Oakland Athletics, 9:40 p.m. ET

Athletics Moneyline (+136)

Transparently, the Toronto Blue Jays (30-32) at Oakland Athletics (25-39) won't make for the prettiest ball game, but there is still value to be had here.

Right now, Toronto is the worst team in a talented AL East division. Across the way, the A's are in the AL West's cellar. Still, someone has to win tonight.

This is an instance where I will let the odds dictate my selection. FanDuel currently lists Oakland with +136 odds on the moneyline. For me, that's enough enticement to wager on the Athletics winning at home.

The pitching matchup at the Oakland Coliseum will feature Chris Bassitt and lefty Hogan Harris. Bassitt -- a former member of the A's -- is tagged with a 4.31 xERA. Conversely, Harris has been one of Oakland's best starters in 2024 with a 3.77 SIERA.

numberFire's MLB power rankings give slight support to the home team at this time. The A's (-0.39 nERD) are placed 24th while the Jays (-0.40 nERD) chime in at 25th.

Toronto has not fared particularly well against left-handed pitching this season. Currently, the Blue Jays are sporting a .659 team OPS versus southpaws. That leaves me hesitant to play Canada's team on Friday. I'll take Oakland to win at plus money.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.