3 MLB Best Bets for Friday 6/21/24

Gabriel Santiago
Gabriel Santiago@gps_onthemic
3 MLB Best Bets for Friday 6/21/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

MLB Betting Picks

Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees, 7:05 p.m. ET

Over 7.5 Runs (-122)

For an interleague meeting between two contending sides, the Atlanta Braves (41-31) will be in the Bronx to take on the New York Yankees (51-26) -- prepare for an entertaining clash.

The projected starters Friday at Yankee Stadium are fellow lefties Chris Sale and Carlos Rodon. Genuinely, both hurlers have been stingy. In his first season with Atlanta, Sale owns a 2.48 xFIP. As for Rodon, he's improved in 2024, boasting a 3.93 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA).

Despite respectable pitching, I like over 7.5 runs (-122 odds) for this bid. There are prominent sluggers in both lineups, and with a heatwave running through NYC, I expect batted balls to carry well in an intimate ballpark.

As a team, the Yanks have compiled the second-best wOBA (.335) in baseball. Their lineup has both power and finesse, but I am looking at Aaron Judge to perpetuate scoring in this matchup against a lefty -- Judge has obliterated southpaws in 2024 for a 1.170 OPS.

Presently, the Braves are a bit banged up, but they still maintain a threatening offense. Atlanta enters this series with a .162 ISO (sixth-best). Also, first baseman Matt Olson loves to take hacks at Yankee Stadium, showcasing a .368 batting average with four homers throughout nine games in the Bronx.

Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET

Nationals Moneyline (-126)

The Washington Nationals (36-38) are headed west for a road trip, first stopping in Denver this weekend to play the Colorado Rockies (26-49). Both ball clubs here are under .500. Regardless, we can sniff out a winning ticket.

At Coors Field, Friday's probable pitchers are Dakota Hudson and lefty DJ Herz. Notably, Hudson has been shelled in 2024, laboring behind a 5.31 SIERA. Conversely, the rookie Herz has displayed a 13.19 K/9 over three MLB starts.

I like the Nats' moneyline listing at -126 odds. Compared to Colorado, Washington has proven to be a more competitive side. According to numberFire, the Nationals (-0.48 nERD) are five spots ahead of the Rockies (-2.10 nERD) in terms of power rankings.

When the game gets to the bullpens, Washington also has the clear advantage there. Heading into the weekend, the Nats' pen carries a 3.82 ERA while the Rox relief group is tagged with a 5.77 ERA and 1.63 WHIP.

With slightly juiced odds, I don't mind wagering on the road team to take down MLB's most vulnerable pitching staff.

Los Angeles Angels at Los Angeles Dodgers, 10:10 p.m. ET

Dodgers -1.5 (+106)

A classic of Southern California, this weekend brings the Freeway Series. For the first meeting of 2024, the Los Angeles Angels (29-35) will hightail it 30 miles up "the 5" to see the Los Angeles Dodgers (47-30).

The starting pitchers in this regional rivalry are expected to be rookie Landon Knack and lefty Patrick Sandoval. Knack -- currently owning a 0.97 WHIP -- has been efficient through five appearances at the MLB level. Meanwhile, the southpaw Sandoval shows a mediocre 5.24 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.

With all aspects considered, I like the Dodgers to cover the run line (+106 odds) at Chavez Ravine tonight. Not only is LAD the top offense in baseball right now, but they've been even more prolific when facing left-handed pitching (.818 OPS vs. LHP).

After 77 games played, the Dodgers are sporting the third-largest margin of victory (1.4 runs). From there, the "Boys in Blue" have built the best run differential (+108) on the Senior Circuit.

All said, I am looking at right-handed boppers Will Smith and Teoscar Hernandez to power LA's National League side to victory by at least two runs.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.