MLB

3 Home Run Prop Bets to Target for Monday 6/24/24

Tom Vecchio
Tom Vecchio@Tom_Vecchio1

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up to measuring a player's potential to produce in daily fantasy baseball on FanDuel.

Here, we're going to focus on the former, specifically home run props.

Utilizing our projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some MLB home run props bets that look appealing via the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Please note that betting lines and projections may change throughout the day after this article is published. Also, the weather may be an issue in some locations.

Home Run Props

Vinnie Pasquantino To Hit a Home Run (+420)

The Kansas City Royals have a big 5.62 implied run total against the Miami Marlins and some fantastic hitting conditions tonight.

The temperature is going to be in the upper 90s with the wind blowing out to left field tonight, giving us a hitter's paradise.

The Marlins will have Roddery Munoz on the bump tonight, a young pitcher with a limited sample size this season.

So far, he's allowed a .772 SLG, .477 wOBA, 4.52 xFIP, 5.14 HR/9, 51.2% fly-ball rate, and 41.5% hard-contact rate versus left-handed hitters in a 14.0 inning sample size this season.

Yes, it's a small sample size but there's nothing in his minor league numbers that would suggest we need to avoid him.

We turn to Vinnie Pasquantino, who comes in with a 101 wRC+, .316 wOBA, .181 ISO, 48.1% fly-ball rate, and 34.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season.

We've seen six of his seven homers come in this split, making it the one to attack. I'll add, Pasquantino To Record an RBI (-110), too.

Rafael Devers To Hit a Home Run (+320)

With an elite matchup, Rafael Devers has the chance to knock one over the wall tonight.

The Boston Red Sox host the Toronto Blue Jays, where we see more great hitting conditions tonight with the wind blowing out to right field.

Devers comes in with a 161 wRC+, .407 wOBA, .308 ISO, 46.9% fly-ball rate, and 41.4% hard-contact rate versus right-handed pitchers this season. This has him hitting 12 of his 14 homers in this split.

He'll be up against Chris Bassitt, who struggles with lefties to the tune of a .439 SLG, .366 wOBA, 5.10 xFIP, 1.42 HR/9, 35.5% fly-ball rate, and 40.8% hard-contact rate.

It's essentially the picture-perfect matchup for Devers to hit one deep tonight. I'll add, Devers To Record an RBI (+100), too.

Spencer Steer To Hit a Home Run (+370)

With a fantastic park for homers as the backdrop, the ball should be flying tonight in Cincinnati.

The Great American Ball Park sits as the second-best park in the league for home runs and when we add on hot temperatures, we have a recipe for offense.

The Cincinnati Reds will be up against Bailey Falter, who has some big-time issues with right-handed hitters this season.

So far, he's allowed a .403 SLG, 4.81 xFIP, 1.46 HR/9, 44.6% fly-ball rate, and 12.0% HR/FB ratio. That type of fly-ball rate in this park is something we love to see when we are searching for homers.

We turn to Spencer Steer, who is rocking a 137 wRC+, .373 wOBA, .230 ISO, 44.1% fly-ball rate, and 35.6% hard-contact rate versus left-handed pitchers.

I love everything about this matchup so I'll add, Steer To Record an RBI (+105), too.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.